Is COP31 a turning point for sustainable AI?
By Tomas Lamanauskas, Deputy Secretary-General, ITU
Government and business leaders currently gathered in Antalya, Türkiye, for the United Nations climate change conference, COP31, must confront the truth: if we don’t act now, artificial intelligence (AI) could quickly hit the world’s environmental, engineering and economic boundaries.
By 2030, the data centres powering AI growth could consume nearly 945 terawatt-hours of electricity annually, nearly triple the combined electricity use of Nigeria, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. The water demand for cooling these centres could meet the domestic needs of 1.3 billion people annually. And the physical infrastructure supporting AI globally could sprawl across 14,500 square kilometres, more than 24 times the size of the San Francisco area, as per a recent UN study.
This presents a critical paradox. AI is a technology with the potential to transform lives and supercharge climate action – enabling breakthroughs in emissions tracking, deforestation monitoring, and energy-grid optimization.
According to the London School of Economics, AI – if applied effectively – could reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 3.2 billion tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent (CO2e) annually by 2035 — comparable to the European Union’s total emissions each year. Yet without intervention, AI growth risks straining global energy systems and environmental resources.
Our call for commitments
At COP31, we can resolve this contradiction with concrete action.
Central to this effort is the Antalya AI Pledge, a bold global commitment proposed by Türkiye’s COP31 Presidency and developed in collaboration with ITU, the UN agency for digital technologies. Open to the entire digital industry, this pledge asks governments, the private sector, and civil society to keep future AI growth sustainable, equitable, and climate conscious.
The Antalya AI Pledge focuses on four key areas: transparency, energy-efficient infrastructure, sustainable design and circularity, and climate action. It outlines specific actions, such as powering AI infrastructure with low- and zero-emission energy, integrating green resource-efficient AI model design and circularity principles, measuring and reporting AI’s environmental impacts, and using AI solutions for climate action.
As advanced AI computing capacity is concentrated in only a handful of economies, the text also emphasizes the importance of bridging gaps in access to these technologies, particularly in developing countries, by providing financial, technical, and infrastructure support.
The Antalya AI Pledge, admittedly, is not a quick fix. A single pledge cannot transform the global tech sector overnight. But it’s an essential step in the wider push for responsible and sustainable AI.
Why it matters now
Thirty-one years ago, when the world convened for the first UN Climate Change Conference, AI was a distant dream. Today, around 1 billion monthly active users use standalone generative-AI platforms, according to industry data.
Few technologies match AI’s capacity to drive innovation and solve complex problems. AI is transforming industries, from healthcare to education, and we are only beginning to discover what an AI-powered world can achieve.
At the same time, record-breaking heatwaves, floods, hurricanes, and wildfires are becoming the new normal. The last decade has been the hottest in recorded history, and the current El Niño could be the strongest ever seen.
Critical engineering and economic issues related to AI expansion are pointing to the same direction as environmental challenges. Energy costs and shortages, grid capacity limits as well as water scarcity are emerging as significant constraints on the future of AI.
The Antalya AI Pledge builds on the Green Digital Action initiative, which has mobilized countries, companies, and international organizations behind a shared aim: to put digital technologies and AI on the right side of history.
What’s required
Aligning technological progress with environmental goals requires leadership at every level.
Governments must put forward clear policies and incentives. Companies must invest in low- and zero- carbon energy for their AI infrastructure, prioritize energy efficiency and responsible design, and adopt transparent reporting on emissions aligned with international standards. International organizations and civil society groups must help ensure that the benefits of AI are shared among all countries and communities.
At ITU, we will support the implementation of commitments made under the pledge, including by promoting the application of international standards, supporting knowledge exchange, and reviewing progress annually in collaboration with the rest of the UN system.
The question remains: Will AI result in more CO₂ emissions than it avoids? Or will we create a path to sustainable economic and environmental AI development?
COP31 is our opportunity to guide the future of AI.
We call on everyone involved in shaping, using and guiding artificial intelligence to join us. Sign the pledge. Support sustainability. Innovate responsibly. With bold action and collective vision, AI could have a net positive impact in support of humanity’s efforts to tackle climate change.
The Antalya AI Pledge will be officially launched at the COP31 High-level Green Digital Action Roundtable on AI on 16 November. Sign it here.
Header image credit: Osmancan Gürdoğan – Anadolu Agency
Image credit: ITU/F. Fernandes
