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Work item:
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XSTP.epoch
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Subject/title:
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Global coordination requirements for 2038-class rollover events (including but not limited to 2036, 2038, 2106)
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Status:
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Agreed on 2026-06-10
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Approval process:
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Agreement
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Type of work item:
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Technical paper
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Version:
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New
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Equivalent number:
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-
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Timing:
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-
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Liaison:
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FIRST, IETF, ISO/IEC JTC 1 SC27, ETSI TC CYBER, IEEE, National timing authorities (where appropriate)
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Supporting members:
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FIRST, Broadcom Europe Ltd.
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Summary:
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This technical paper consolidates global understanding of risks associated with a cluster of structurally distinct timekeeping discontinuities arriving between 2036 and 2038, with the 2106 horizon treated as a long-tail consideration (collectively referred to as 2038-class risks). The Technical Paper documents known and emerging failure patterns across the deployed substrate of ICT systems incorporating 32-bit time representations, and examines systemic challenges in discovery, inventory, in-situ versus simulated testing, coordinated vulnerability management, and cross-sector coordination.
The paper develops the structural limitations of remote detection and laboratory simulation for 2038-class failure characterisation, drawing on historical analogues including the 1996 Ariane 5 incident to illustrate why in-situ validation under operational conditions is the binding requirement where simulation-based testing cannot capture environment-specific behaviour. Effective response to 2038-class risks depends on multi-stakeholder coordination across operators, vendors, regulators, certification bodies, and standards organisations whose ordinary remediation pathways are not constituted to address risks that span their jurisdictional boundaries — and on the common terminology, conceptual models, and shared prioritisation approaches that such coordination requires.
It establishes shared terminology, a coherent problem framing, and a high-level analytical foundation; identifies areas requiring further study and inter-SDO collaboration; and surfaces operational response categories including harm-minimisation strategies for substrate conditions where full remediation is not achievable on the available timeline. Its objective is to support Member States, operators, vendors, standards bodies, and incident response communities in preparing for potential correlated failure pathways before rollover thresholds are reached.
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Comment:
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-
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Reference(s):
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Historic references:
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Contact(s):
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| ITU-T A.5 justification(s): |
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First registration in the WP:
2025-12-11 10:43:12
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Last update:
2026-07-21 16:15:35
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