Page 26 - Methodology to assess Net Zero progress in cities

3.2.1 US results for Net Zero targets by 2050

The latest Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted by the United States before COP26
aims for a 50–52 per cent net reduction in economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 2030,
relative to a 2005 baseline of 6.635 GtCO eq. Achieving this objective would correspond to net
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economy-wide emissions of 3.185 GtCO eq in 2030, down from 5.794 GtCO eq in 2018 (i.e., a
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45 per cent reduction from 2018 to 2030). While net GHG emissions have declined between the
baseline year and 2018, the pace of reductions will need to accelerate for the United States of
America to meet the objectives set forth in its NDC. Based on its NDC, the United States' emissions
are estimated to decline by −4.9 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2018 to
2030. From 2030 to 2050, this implies that a −14.6 per cent CAGR is necessary to hit lifecycle by
2050. Over the entire period from 2018 to 2050, emissions would need to decline by −10.5 per
cent CAGR.

3.2.2 EU results for Net Zero targets by 2050

The European Union has agreed to a collective binding target across the 27 member states to reduce
net GHG emissions to 55 per cent below 1990 levels by 2030. The 1990 reference indicator was
determined by the National Inventory Report published by the European Environment Agency and
is subject to change based on methodological improvements; however, as of 2019, 1990 emissions
for the EU is estimated at 4.27 GtCO e. Reaching the NDC target would yield net economy-wide
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emissions of 1.92 GtCO e in 2030, compared to 3.33 GtCO e in 2018 (i.e., a 42 per cent reduction
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from 2018 to 2030). Based on its NDC, the EU27's emissions are estimated to decline by −4.5 per
cent CAGR from 2018 to 2030. From 2030 to 2050, this implies a −14.6 per cent CAGR is necessary
to hit lifecycle by 2050. Over the entire period from 2018 to 2050, emissions would need to decline
by −10.6 per cent CAGR.

3.2.3 Japan's results for Net Zero targets by 2050

Japan has submitted an NDC with a target of achieving a 46 per cent reduction in total greenhouse
gas emissions relative to 2013 levels by 2030 (i.e., from 1.4 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent
[GtCO e] in 2013 to 0.76 GtCO e in 2030) in order to support its aspiration of lifecycle by 2050. In
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2018, total emissions in Japan had dropped to 1.2 GtCO e (i.e., an 18 per cent decrease compared
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to 2013). Based on its NDC, Japan's emissions are estimated to decline by −3.4 per cent CAGR
from 2018 to 2030. From 2030 to 2050, this implies a −14.6 per cent CAGR is necessary to hit
lifecycle by 2050. Over the entire period from 2018 to 2050, emissions would need to decline by
−10.6 per cent CAGR.

3.2.4 China's results for Net Zero targets by 2050

China's latest NDC submitted before COP26 outlines its goals of reaching peak emissions before
2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. By 2030, China aims to achieve a 65 per cent

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