Country Pilots

Ghana

This case study illustrates how the ITU Global Economic Model and Study (GEMS) can inform broadband expansion strategies in Ghana. Starting from a context of near-universal 4G coverage but limited 5G and fixed broadband reach, the pilot explores an accelerated deployment of 5G and fibre-to-the-home (FTTH), primarily targeting urban and suburban areas where investment is most viable. Rural connectivity continues to rely on enhanced 4G coverage complemented by satellite broadband solutions.

The analysis shows that expanding high-speed connectivity would significantly improve broadband adoption, service quality, and digital inclusion, generating strong economy-wide benefits across sectors such as trade, manufacturing, finance, health, and digital services. However, the study also highlights that these investments are unlikely to be attractive for operators without targeted policy and regulatory support. Measures such as infrastructure sharing, more flexible spectrum management, demand-side subsidies, universal service funding, and limited cross-sector contributions are shown to be critical to unlocking private investment while maximizing social and economic returns

Guatemala

The Guatemala Country pilot case applies the GEMS framework to assess the socio-economic impact of expanding 4G, 5G, and fibre broadband networks nationwide. While Guatemala already benefits from relatively strong mobile coverage in urban and suburban areas, gaps remain in rural connectivity and in the availability of high-capacity fixed broadband. The pilot simulates a coordinated expansion of wireless networks to reach nearly the entire population, alongside targeted FTTH deployment in urban and suburban zones.

Results indicate that improved broadband infrastructure would drive higher adoption, faster speeds, and substantial productivity gains across the economy, supporting digital transformation in sectors such as commerce, manufacturing, public services, healthcare, and ICT. The study finds that market forces alone are insufficient to support the scale of investment required. Regulatory reforms to promote infrastructure sharing and co-location, combined with public financing mechanisms, affordability subsidies, and modest contributions from beneficiary sectors, emerge as key enablers to ensure commercially viable deployments with strong national economic benefits.

Saudi Arabia

The Saudi Arabia case study applies the ITU Global Economic Model and Study (GEMS) Tool to assess the investment needs and socio‑economic impacts of expanding broadband networks in line with Vision 2030. Starting from near‑universal 4G coverage and rapidly growing 5G and FTTH deployments, the analysis compares two scenarios: a regulatory obligation scenario, focused on extending 4G to underserved rural areas, and a more ambitious national goals scenario, prioritizing nationwide 5G expansion and extending FTTH to 80 per cent of households.

Results show that meeting regulatory obligations alone delivers limited economic impact, with modest GDP spillovers and weak financial incentives for operators. In contrast, achieving Vision 2030 national goals generates substantial benefits, including USD 14.2 billion in total economic impact (0.33 per cent of GDP) and strong productivity gains across key sectors such as manufacturing, wholesale and retail, finance, health, and IT. While these investments are not commercially viable without support, the study demonstrates that government co‑financing, demand subsidies, and cross‑sector contributions can close the investment gap, make projects financially sustainable, and unlock significant socio‑economic returns. Overall, the case highlights broadband as a strategic enabler of Saudi Arabia’s digital transformation and economic diversification agenda.