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ITU-T Focus Group Digital Financial Services
                                                         Ecosystem



               The Pakistan numbers are interesting not only for the steady growth they have shown in branchless banking
               account registrations since 2011,  but also for the last quarter results, where providers showed a marked
                                           29
               increase in account registrations, particularly riding on the back of SIM registration drives underway to use SIM
               KYC to open accounts.  MobiCash also issued a press release in December 2015 noting a 20-fold increase in
                                  30
               active mobile money accounts on a 30-day basis, growing from 25,000 in April 2015 to 500,000 in December
               2015, incentivising mobile money users by giving free airtime on every cash-in. 31

               A similar trend is also seen in Bangladesh,  where account registrations have significantly increased (see Figure
                                                 32
               2). However, these wallets are not being used: Active accounts appear to have grown more slowly.

               Figure 2 – Account registration in Bangladesh (Jan-2014 to Oct-2015)
                    35
                    30
                    25
                    Millions  20
                     15
                    10
                     5
                     0

                                         No. of registered clients (Mn.)  No. of active accounts (Mn.)


               Source: Mobile Financial Services (MFS) comparative summary statement, Bangladesh Bank Available at: https:// www. bb. org. bd/ fnansys/
               paymentsys/ mfsdata. php

               These account registration numbers in Pakistan and Bangladesh (which are primarily OTC markets) are
               impressive and illustrate that while OTC is the main method in both of these countries, it does not prevent
               growth in account registrations.

               Registration is important for product evolution, building an ecosystem, and achieving full financial inclusion
               as previously discussed, but registration campaigns may be most optimally sequenced after launch. This
               would allow providers to target specific user segments with tailored value added services via the mobile money
               account, which may well result in much higher levels of revenue-generating use.


               3.4    Problem 4: OTC reduce provider’s profitability

               GSMA has pointed out that some revenue streams can decrease with OTC  however, a comprehensive analysis
                                                                            33
               on the impact of OTC on total revenue and profit is currently missing from the industry discussion. Two
               important factors impact the profitability of an OTC deployment: 1) Increased costs of operation, including
               agent commissions in competitive markets like Pakistan, where the OTC methodology has given the agents
               extraordinary power  over the providers and has led to providers having to pay higher commissions than
                                 34



               29   The State Bank of Pakistan only reports figures back until Q4 2011, so that is as far as our analysis goes, even though EasyPaisa
                  and Omni both launched their services the year before.
               30   The impetus for this was a government mandated SIM registration which providers used to their advantage to register people for
                  branchless banking accounts.
               31   see the press release here. These numbers and the definition used for “Active” were confirmed to the authors by MobiCash staff.
                  http:// propakistani. pk/ 2015/ 12/ 11/ mobicashs- active- mobile- wallet- customers- grow- to- over- 500000/
               32   Mobile Financial Services data sourced from Bangladesh Bank
               33   GSMA. Mobile money profitability: A digital ecosystem to drive healthy margins, 2014. http:// www. gsma. com/
                  mobilefordevelopment/ programme/ mobile- money- programme/ mobile- money- profitability- a- digital- ecosystem- to- drive- healthy-
                  margins/
               34   Maha Khan and Mike McCaffrey. The Powerful Agents & Fractured Markets of Pakistan, June 2015. http:// www. helix- institute.
                  com/ blog/ powerful- agents- fractured- markets- pakistan- 0



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