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2.3. Results

Rotterdam flood scenario has been calculated with the hydrodynamic 3Di model. The tool can
be considered as a new versatile water management instrument that supports operational water
management, calamity management and spatial planning design.

The potential benefits of such a predictive tool to cities and communities are multi-fold. Simulations
allow increasing the preparedness and hence the resilience of cities to various unexpected yet
disastrous events. Precautions and safeguards that can be taken as a result of understanding the
potential impact of such events could save human lives. They can also help preparing communities
and informing them in advance what to do in such circumstances. Additionally, rescue efforts can
be organized better and more efficient. Requisite resources such as equipment, personnel, etc. can
better be distributed and utilized by predicting their needed quantities and locations.The project
has now also an analogue version of Circle, called Circle BAO. This was made for use in areas where
there is no digital information available. This method focusses on bringing together stakeholders
and identify what the possible impacts of flooding are. A description of the workshop format can
be found here and a video can be found here for cascading effects on critical infrastructure in
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Tanzania.
Further planned development is to look at how these tools can be integrated in ‘digital twins’ of
cities. These are virtual reality copies of cities that are used for urban planning.
It is useful to know that the Circle method is not limited to use for assessing the effects of flood
events. It can also be used for other natural hazards or man-made events that lead to failure of
critical infrastructure.

3. Conclusions

Citizens are more and more dependent on technologies and information systems that are run by the
cities. This socio-technical system interdependency has had significant impacts on the way in which
cities response to disaster situations. However, in the case of technological failure (such as that
caused by flooding), it is important to understand the cascading effects on the critical infrastructures
of a city. Therefore, conducting studies and developing methodologies to better understand risks
propagation and the cascading effects of natural disaster are fundamental building blocks to
improve disaster responses and create a more resilient urban infrastructure.

The key factors to be considered here include the probability of failure of a given critical
infrastructure and the time required for repairing a damaged critical infrastructure before it
spreads to another critical infrastructure, through cascading effect. There are methods, tools and
models being developed to achieve simulation of flooding effect using information provided by
stakeholders. Workshops are arranged to allow stakeholders to share their knowledge and devise a
coordinated plan when disaster strikes.
It is expected that new tools and models that incorporate other frontier technologies will be further
developed over time. This may include virtual reality, IoT devices to collect information, automation,
etc. to facilitate an automated control on such incidents.

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