Insight 11: Outlook from The Mobile World - relatively fi xed - costs associated with that traffi c. For example, in the case of the Brazilian operator TIM Participacoes, average minutes of use dropped from 101 per month to 86 in Q4 2008 and to just 70 minutes per month in Q1 2009. With no increase in the overall subscriber base, network loading has fallen by more than 27% or about 2.5 billion min-utes The picture emerging from the June 2009 quarterly earnings is more positive than could have been hoped six months ago. Growth in mobile subscriptions has continued over the nine months since September 2008, albeit at reduced rates. However, some markets have been far more badly affected than others, while mobile usage has slowed in almost all territories, with an adverse impact on revenues and profi tability. per quarter. One result is a reduction in inter-connection payments, but this can never compensate for the loss of revenues, and TIM has experienced a large swing into loss over the last six months. The Mobile World Database indicates a March 2009 total of 4.15bn connections worldwide, up from 3.84bn at the end of September 2008, equivalent to an annualized growth rate of just under 11%. We expect a global total for mobile subscriptions of between 4.25-4.26 billion by June 2009, with most new growth coming from Asia and, to a lesser extent, Africa. We do not expect to see much in the way of growth from the developed world and it is even pos-sible In this context, it is interesting to note that the major US operators have seen little impact on ARPUs or usage, despite the rising unemployment. What’s go-ing on here? The vast majority of US subscribers are connected through long-term contracts, which sof-tens the impact on monthly subscriber numbers. Last year’s redundancies may still, offi cially, be hooked up to AT&T or Verizon. And there is little impact so far on ARPUs or MoUs just yet either, as most corpo-rate that Europe – with its 119% penetration rate by customers are on “big bundle” packages where March 2009 - might even see net disconnections. usage is estimated at 700 or 1,000 minutes a month, even when former employees are no longer working. The only detectable effect of recession – so far – is on profi t & loss accounts, where reduced intercon- Reductions in usage are probably causing operators more concern, however. Lower usage means lower revenues, without corresponding reductions in the 64 Confronting the Crisis: ICT Stimulus Plans for Economic Growth