Global market forecasts for mobile services are enormous. The UMTS Forum, representing the global mobile industry, estimates that by 2010 there will be around 2 billion mobile users worldwide. Interactive multimedia services, electronic commerce, the growing penetration of personal computers (PC) at home, in the office and on the move, together with the increasing use of credit and debit cards will all drive web-based transactions to a significant level of traffic globally on both fixed and mobile networks. With IMT-2000 wireless multimedia services, up to 2 Mbit/s will be available to indoor, outdoor and vehicle-based users. Worldwide plans to introduce IMT-2000 foresee the first deployment of services from 2001. The IMT-2000 licensing process has already begun in Europe and will continue, with more than 100 licences expected worldwide by 2002. IMT-2000 will be the largest ITU project ever.

New developments such as the Internet, and particularly the intranet, are now increasing the intensity of information usage in the business chain. It is conceivable that by 2005, the number of Internet/intranet users will be at least 500 million worldwide — a number that could easily allow us to say that "the first mobile Internet users already have access to a mass market".

Nearly every kind of terminal will be capable of using Internet to a greater or lesser extent. By the end of the decade, the PC will be just one amongst several different types of intelligent devices for access to the Internet, working alongside televisions, network computers, mobile terminals and handheld units for games. The increasing demand for mobility and personalisation will reinforce the growth of mobile multimedia, and subsequently that of IMT-2000.

Seen from this market growth, it is obvious that the total spectrum situation needs to be reviewed to secure the long-term development of the mobile communications market.

The UMTS Forum, an independent organization under Swiss law with a worldwide membership, has developed its views and recommendations for worldwide spectrum planning and implementation.

A key societal driver of the market for interactive services is the trend towards individuality in society ¾ i.e. the desire to be different and to choose products and services which meet one’s own personal needs most effectively. This manifests itself in the demand for personalised services. It is expected that the growth in demand for interactive and pay-TV, as well as entertainment and information services will be driven by this trend, provided that content and service providers can offer the consumer straightforward and personal controls for customising his/her services.

Figure 1 - IMT-2000 provides IT&T integration

The demand for personalised services requires a worldwide harmonized mobile telecommunication system such as IMT-2000, which facilitates convergence with Internet, intranets and traditional telecommunication systems. Worldwide harmonization also means that IMT-2000 is based upon ITU-agreed global spectrum. This is today called the IMT-2000 Core Band!

Now, it is intended that WRC-2000 will identify additional spectrum for IMT-2000 on a worldwide basis. This will be a key action to enable the long-term and sustained success of IMT-2000. In this regard, WRC Agenda Item 1.6.1 will be one of the most important topics on the table in Istanbul.

Figure 2 Terrestrial spectrum calculations resulted in additional 160 MHz worldwide for IMT-2000

ITU-R Task Group 8/1 (which was succeeded in March 2000 by Working Party 8F) determined in 1999 that an additional spectrum of 160 MHz should be identified globally for the terrestrial component of IMT-2000, in each of the three ITU Regions, to meet the anticipated demand for new services. Detailed discussions, using current market forecasts applied to a worldwide agreed spectrum calculation methodology with traffic models for all user environments across the three Regions, led to this worldwide determination. Figure 2 illustrates how each Region needs this additional spectrum over and above the spectrum presently identified for IMT-2000 and that allocated to mobile services, even though the absolute total spectrum requirement varies among the Regions.

For example, the UMTS Forum achieved an industry consensus for an overall total terrestrial demand estimated to be 582 MHz. Of this, 240 MHz would be in Region 1, parts of it in Regions 2 and 3 are already available for second generation services. A further 155 - 170 MHz would be in the IMT-2000 Core Band (WRC '92 Allocations). The difference to the total figure is thus 187 MHz.

Figure 3 - Terrestrial spectrum calculation from the UMTS Forum for the years 2005/2010. Example: Traffic model Western Europe

The detailed build-up of spectrum demand for the services to be provided is shown in Figure 3. Similar estimations have been done for the satellite component of IMT-2000.

Ideally, the additional 160 MHz spectrum would be available on an exclusive basis, at least in the urban areas. However, in reality this may not be possible in some bands and/or some areas, and sharing with other services could be required at the commencement of service.

The spectrum requirement calculated for terrestrial UMTS/IMT-2000 is based on several factors:

The spectrum requirements for each service (speech, simple messaging, switched data, medium multimedia, high multimedia and high interactive multimedia) are considered in each of the six geographical operating environments. These are: the Central Business District (CBD) indoor, Suburban, Home, Urban Pedestrian, Urban Vehicular and Rural. The spectrum requirement calculation takes place independently for each case, with a final summation giving the total spectrum requirement. Only three of the operational environments (CBD indoor, Urban Pedestrian, Vehicular) contribute to the maximum total amount of spectrum required. This is because they co-exist in the same geographical area. The result in Figure 3 shows very clearly that multimedia services will exceed the spectrum requirements for speech services in the years between 2005 and 2010.

On the basis of current frequency usage, the UMTS Forum studied the suitability of possible candidate extension bands, the potential advantages that each band offers to IMT-2000 and the possible risks that each band presents. Some bands are considered more suitable because of their size, potential availability, duplexing possibilities, propagation conditions and their proximity to the IMT-2000 Core Band.

The extension bands need to be explicitly identified for IMT-2000 in new footnotes in the Radio Regulations. The footnote approach in the Radio Regulations is the best way to support global spectrum availability and to facilitate the harmonized implementation of IMT-2000 networks. The existing footnote S5.388¹ has already shown its value as a vehicle to create the favourable spectrum framework required for IMT-2000 implementation. The footnote has, for example, prompted Europe to create a CEPT ERC Decision on IMT-2000 spectrum, through which 22 administrations have now committed themselves to making spectrum available for IMT-2000 in a timely manner. This commitment is necessary to build sufficient confidence in the licensing and regulatory environment.

The band 2520 - 2670 MHz (2500 - 2690 MHz) is considered to be the best candidate to provide the majority of the additional required spectrum. It is a good candidate for allocation to IMT-2000 on a global basis, even if the availability of the spectrum may initially be limited by regional time-scales. But why? The answer from the UMTS Forum is unanimous and clear:

• It is a contiguous block of 150 MHz (190 MHz), larger than other candidate bands
• It lies below 3 GHz and is close to the IMT-2000 Core Band
• It will be supported by many countries in Regions 1 and 3, probably also in Region 2.
• The timely designation of this band, or parts of it, will depend on individual country requirements.

This band alone will probably not meet the total additional spectrum requirement in all Regions. Identification of further frequency bands can provide administrations with the flexibility to find the full 160 MHz of additional global spectrum within the required timescales.

To supplement the band 2520 - 2670 MHz, the bands 2700 - 2900 MHz, 470 - 806 MHz and 806 - 960 MHz can also be considered as candidate extension bands.

Preliminary studies confirm the possibility of sharing between IMT-2000 and the existing services utilizing the band 2.7 - 2.9 GHz. Thus, this band could be a good candidate for an IMT-2000 global extension band in the time frame scheduled (2005 - 2010) as it is already harmonized worldwide for its current application. Studies for sharing this band with other services will continue.

The bands 470 - 806 MHz and 806 - 960 MHz may also be attractive because of propagation conditions, particularly in developing countries and rural areas. At these lower frequencies, a greater range is possible for a given transmitter power, giving wider-area coverage and signals that more easily penetrate through vegetation and into buildings.

Spectrum currently used for second generation mobile services may be re-used for IMT-2000 only in the longer term when such use has significantly decreased. However, some forward planning for this re-use could be undertaken by WRC-2000, for example, by identifying these bands for future IMT-2000 use.

For IMT-2000 services to be available in large sparsely populated areas, a successful implementation of the satellite component may be advantageous. In order to satisfy spectrum requirements for the satellite component in these areas, it is necessary to ensure that spectrum already allocated to the mobile-satellite service can be used for the satellite component of IMT-2000. Additionally, transitional arrangements should be introduced in the 2500 - 2520/2670 - 2690 MHz MSS allocations to allow satisfactory access to those bands by the MSS and the IMT-2000 satellite component.

The harmonization of spectrum use (i.e. a worldwide common frequency plan which comprises, for all ITU countries, the same bands for IMT-2000) is a necessary step and is a key element in reducing the cost and complexity of IMT-2000 implementation. Bands harmonized globally would provide end- multimedia terminals users with the same services at minimal cost, irrespective of the terminal used or the user’s location.

Figure 4 - IMT-2000 mobile

User terminals from many manufacturers will be able to compete with each other in terms of their features, technologies and prices in a huge, innovative mass market. Already today, more than 40 concept phones are being shown by 12 manufacturers from around the globe. Such concepts supplement the wide variety of modular solutions which will also exist based on laptops and PDAs interconnected to a handheld terminal via infrared or Bluetooth. New display and input technologies which will emerge beyond 2005 will create new classes of multimedia terminals (see Figure 4).

Harmonized spectrum is the main facilitator of worldwide roaming which is a fundamental objective of IMT-2000. Thanks to this harmonization, both developed and developing countries will be able to benefit from an innovative radio system that contributes to the quality of life and economic prosperity of their peoples.