The Probability Calculator is a project of the Federal Telecommunications Institute (IFT, as per its Spanish acronym) that, based on the sociodemographic characteristics of a person, allows its users to estimate the probability of use of an Information and Communication Technology (ICT) or to carry out certain activities on the Internet. Specifically, the tool estimates the probability to use computer, Internet, mobile phone, Internet through a Smartphone, as well as online activities such as e-commerce, e-payments, e-banking transactions or interaction with the government.

Also, the Probability Calculator allows to choose the age, gender, education level, occupation, income level, and place of residence, in order to define the socio-demographic profile. The tool was developed using data from the National Survey on Availability and Use of Information Technologies in Households (ENDUTIH, as per its Spanish acronym), published in 2017.

The Calculator was designed as an instrument to develop public policies aimed to reduce the digital divide in Mexico, at national, state and for the 49 cities included, since it provides essential information about the population groups with lower access to ICT. Moreover, the project contributes with goals 5, 9, and 10 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG).

The Probabilities Calculator is an intuitive and friendly tool accessible for anyone using a device with Internet access, so the tool is available for the public in general, government entities, the academic community, media, and the private sector.

http://calculadoraprob.ift.org.mx/

• Mexico

Since the Probabilities Calculator was made in house with data from the ENDUTIH (which is public), the IFT could share the methodology in order to replicate this tool. For instance, if any government from another country is interested in replicating this tool, the only requirements that will be needed are: i) to have staff with statistics and econometric skills and ii) a survey of ICT and Internet use in households. In case a country does not have this kind of survey, there are surveys from international organizations that could be used, like:

- Survey of Schools: ICT in Education Benchmarking Access, Use and Attitudes to Technology in Europe’s Schools (European Schoolnet)
- Survey of ICT and Education in the Caribbean: Regional Trends and Analysis (Volume 1) & Country Reports (Volume 2) (World Bank)
- Survey of ICT and Education in Africa (Volume I): A Summary Report, Based on 53 Country Surveys & (Volume 2): 53 Country Reports (World Bank)

The tool uses information from the ENDUTIH and this survey has been published in an annual basis. Since the Calculator design was fully developed by the IFT, it will be updated annually using the new data from ENDUTIH.

The Probabilities Calculator is fully inclusive since it provides information to any internet user. This tool is valuable for designing public policies to reduce the digital divide, as well as for identifying business opportunities to increase the use of ICT. Also, the private sector could use this information to design commercial strategies, which in the end could impact the digital economy. Moreover, the academia could develop more research on the ICT and Internet adoption, as well as issue policy recommendations using as input the estimations of the Calculator.