The third generation (3G) mobile race is finally set to begin. Known internationally as IMT-2000, 3G mobile systems aim to provide a plethora of services: simple voice, rich voice (consumer videophone and multimedia conferencing), location-based services, business and consumer multimedia messaging services, mobile Internet/intranet/extranet access and customized infotainment. Our feature article on pages 4 to 13 takes a close look at location-based services.
What will it take to be a winner in 3G? Some analysts point to speed as an essential element. Not only enhanced transmission speeds, but speed in network roll-out and in anticipating, developing and delivering the services that customers will want.
Japan's NTT DoCoMo has taken "a leap forward" with its pre-launch operation of 3G mobile communication services. Introduced on 30 May 2001, this operation will run until 3G commercial services branded FOMA (freedom of mobile multimedia access) are launched on 1 October 2001. A lucky 4500 people or "monitors" are trying out these services using free handsets provided by NTT DoCoMo. They have also been exempted from paying monthly subscription fees and are responsible only for communication charges. In return they will fill out questionnaires about the 3G services and offer comments and suggestions regarding possible improvements. All introductory handsets are equipped to access the Internet and the very popular i-mode browser services — some are even equipped with videophone capability!
FOMA services will be expanded from October and launched nationwide thereafter. Manx Telecom in the Isle of Man is also expected to launch its 3G system later this year, with much of Europe to follow in 2002.
The stage for the mobile industry to deliver on its promise of 3G mobile systems based on ITU Recommendations (standards) was set in Istanbul in May-June 2000 where ground-breaking decisions were taken. Firstly, the ITU Radiocommunication Assembly formally approved the IMT-2000 standard, which accommodates five possible radio interfaces based on three different access technologies (FDMA, TDMA and CDMA). NTT DoCoMo's system is based on W-CDMA technology. Secondly, right on the heels of the Assembly, the World Radiocommunication Conference identified additional frequency bands for 3G use.
Already, in October 2000, SK Telecom of the Republic of Korea had started a commercial service using a cdma2000 system.
The huge sums of money that operators were prepared to invest in obtaining licences show the degree of confidence in the technology and the potential market demand. For example, mobile operators in Europe have invested more than USD 100 billion in acquiring licences for 3G spectrum. Globally, more than 80 mobile operators have received 3G licences and 50 more are expected to be awarded over the next year or so.
As part of its New Initiatives Programme, ITU is organizing a Strategic Planning Workshop on the subject of 3G mobile licensing policy in Geneva from 19 to 21 September 2001. The workshop will bring together policy-makers, national regulators, and industry to exchange information and perspectives on this topical issue. As well as raising awareness on the benefits and pitfalls of various regulatory approaches, the workshop will seek to identify critical policy issues with respect to the deployment of 3G services, including the regulatory status of virtual mobile operators and the facilitation of global roaming. Indeed, one of the key visions of IMT-2000 is to provide seamless global roaming, enabling users to move across borders while using the same number and handset. The workshop will also explore the potential role the ITU could play as a facilitator of harmonized approaches for the global mobile information society.
| The Editor |
Market watchDespite huge costs, anticipated delays, and unfavourable market conditions, some analysts believe that 3G is the only way forward for mobile operators. "Recent opinions on 3G have almost exclusively focused on the short term and consequently have been rather pessimistic." In a new report entitled "3G in Europe: Expensive but Essential," the Yankee Group analyses the real cost of launching 3G services, assesses the extent to which 3G will alter the European carrier landscape and presents a five-year 2.5G * and 3G market forecast. According to the report, the total investment in 3G in Europe will be approximately USD 274 billion over the next five years. The Group takes the approach that 3G is a long-term strategy and must be viewed as such. It predicts that during 2001, next-generation mobile networks will attract few users but uptake from 2002 will be rapid with GPRS achieving widespread adoption by the end of 2002 and W-CDMA in common use by year-end 2004. New-entrant 3G operators face a far tougher challenge than incumbent 2G players by having higher start-up costs and limited market penetration opportunities. Though 3G networks in Europe will not be launched until 2002, next-generation services will be launched this year on GPRS. Regional forecasts of the UMTS Forum cite the Asia-Pacific region as the highest growth market in the world. Some 64 per cent of 3G revenues are expected to come from simple voice and customized infontaiment services. Incumbent operators in this region and in other parts of the world are already using 3G technology based on cdma2000, part of the IMT-2000 standard. This is a clear sign that industry is rolling out ITU-based 3G technology more quickly than anticipated. North America's demand for 3G data services is continuously growing in both the United States and in Canada. The North American customer base boasts a rich experience in high speed fixed Internet services. The bandwidth and capacity of 3G networks are expected to quench the thirst of this customer base for mobile Internet services. Some 37 per cent of the North American 3G revenue is expected to come from mobile Internet/intranet/extranet access — services that are designed for the Internet-centric user. In Latin America, some 54 per cent of revenue is expected to come from customized infotainment and simple voice. In the Arab States and Africa, many countries are expected to commercialize 3G services after 2007. *This refers to general packet radio service (GPRS) and enhanced data for GSM evolution (EDGE) in Europe. |