INTERNATIONAL TELECOMMUNICATION UNION		

	Abu Dhabi, 16 April 1995
Telecommunications Development in the Arab States:
Global Goals, Regional Realities

Middle East Communications (MIDCOM) Conference

Dr. Pekka Tarjanne
Secretary-General, International Telecommunication Union (ITU)

Mr. Chairmen,
Distinguished fellow speakers,
Ladies and Gentlemen,

It is an honour for me to have been asked to give the keynote address to MIDCOM ‘95 Conference and to speak to such a distinguished gathering.
I have been involved in communications for more than twenty years, and I must say that it is a very long time since I have seen so much interest in communications, everywhere in the world.  Why is this so?
One explanation is obvious.  All forms of communications are changing very rapidly, thanks to the information technology revolution.  Broadcasters, journalists, entertainers and artists are all beginning to realize that they are part of an emerging complex of “information industries”.  They now belong to the same extended family as computer scientists, software developers and telecommunications engineers.  The media are clearly fascinated by what is happening around them and want to tell the world about it.  But there is more to the story than media self-absorption.
At the ITU World Telecommunication Development Conference in Buenos Aires in March, 1994, Vice-President Gore proposed that the nations of the world should cooperate in building what he called a “Global Information Infrastructure”, or GII. Today, his vision is widely shared.  The European Union and Japan have developed ambitious plans to keep pace with those announced by the American administration.  In fact, dozens of national initiatives have been announced around the world, and the GII was discussed at a special meeting of the G-7 group of countries in Brussels in February this year.
Is the GII the future of communications?  What does it represent for the peoples of Arab States?  What is the role of the ITU in bringing about the GII and supporting the development of telecommunications in this part of the world?  Today, I would like to give you my views on these questions.
1.	The Global Information Infrastructure - the Future of Communications?

First of all, what is the GII?  How does it differ from traditional forms of communications?
There are many different answers to this question.  It is no exaggeration to say that every country has a slightly different view of what the GII is, what it will do, and how it should be built.  Europe has put the emphasis on economic and social issues, such as employment and competitiveness, in “the global information society”.  Japan, on the other hand, has stressed the theme of “reforms toward the intellectually creative society of the twenty-first century”.  Singapore sees itself as an “intelligent island”.  Every country, in fact almost every speaker, has a different point of view.
Should we therefore conclude that the GII is nothing more than a catchy slogan? Personally, I would hesitate to draw such a negative conclusion.  It seems to me that  whether we talk about information highways or the GII, we are talking about a common set of goals, about a common set of ideals, about a common set of problems.  Whether we know it or not, we are, in fact, talking about the future of communications, a future that will be very different from the past, a future that almost certainly awaits us in the twenty-first century.
How will the communication networks of the future differ from those of the past?  To begin with, I think there is widespread agreement on the technical aspects of this question.  If you will allow me, I will try to capture this consensus in a few sentences. The networks of the future will be digital.  They will be intelligent.  They will be defined and controlled by software.  They will offer high transmission capacity and flexible bandwidth.  They will have open architectures so that they can be easily accessed and interconnected.
Second, there is also consensus on how the communication services provided by these networks will differ from traditional services.  They will convey information from every possible source -- by putting us in touch with other human beings, by tapping the world’s rapidly expanding reservoirs of electronically stored information, by sensing what is happening in natural and man-made environments.  This information will be presented to us in all its richness; the networks of the future will connect with our senses of sight, sound and touch, and perhaps with our other senses as well. The services provided by the networks of the future will be personal, tailored to the needs of individual users.  They will allow us to interact with other information sources -- whether they are people, databanks or environmental sensors -- in ways not previously possible.  And they will be mobile, available at any time and perhaps in any place.
Third, there is also a widely shared vision of how these networks and services will be applied. In addition to providing an almost unimaginable range of business and entertainment services in response to market demands, it is widely assumed that education, health care and other public services can be provided by communication networks.  If all of these visions materialize, it is certainly the case that every aspect of life will be transformed. 
This, in a few words, summarizes the consensus that I see emerging around the world on the communication networks and services of the future.  It is an inspiring vision.  The question is how we can realize it.
It is sometimes thought that there is a magic solution to building the GII -- for example that the answer is the Internet, or that it is Broadband ISDN, or that it is interactive cable television, or that it is future generation wireless technologies.  Personally, I do not believe that there is a magic solution of this kind -- that some “revolutionary technology” or “killer application” will conquer the world.  It is much more likely that the GII will be a “network of networks” and that it will evolve out of existing technologies and services, just as communications has always done.
It is also sometimes suggested that the mergers and alliances now taking place in the communications industry will lead to a situation in which a handful of giant companies dominate the world.  I do not see this as likely to happen either.  It may be true that a small number of super-carriers will dominate international business services.  In this area, there are real benefits for customers from end-to-end service delivery.  However,  in general it seems to me that increasing competition,  increasing diversity,  increasing innovation, and increasing creativity will typify the networks of the future.
Beyond predicting what will happen, I will even go so far as to say what should happen.  When it comes to content services, whether one-way or two-way, the last thing any of us should want is to see power concentrated in a few hands -- whether they are the hands of government or the hands of the private sector.  We should use communications and information technology to bolster the values that underlie democratic societies.  In the global information society of the twenty-first century, there should be no room anywhere for “Big Brother” or any of his relatives.
In this respect, I see the interactivity promised by the communication networks of the future as one of their most important attributes.  A truly democratic society depends on informed and active citizens.  I believe there is a clear connection between what happens in private realms, such as the home and office, and what happens in public fora where political choices are made.  If we are passive “couch potatoes”  in our leisure time, will we be active members of society?  I believe that all of us involved in communications need to reflect seriously on this fundamental question.
There is another comment I would like to make about the concept of the Global Information Infrastructure.  As I have said today, I think there is an emerging consensus on what the words “information infrastructure” mean, as well as on the kinds of services that will be provided by the networks of the future.  However, it seems to me that we have a much less clear idea of what the word “global” means.  Will the GII be global in the sense of carrying all kinds of information?  Or will it be global in the sense of being accessible from at least some locations in most or all countries?  Or will it be global in the sense of providing universal service to people everywhere, from the remotest villages to the most crowded urban cores? 
There appears to be a tendency to assume that the GII will be global in all these senses, and that it will provide access to the world’s information resources to the poorest countries and people in the world as well as to the richest.  This is a laudable vision.  But is it realistic under present conditions?
2.	Regional Realities and Challenges

In 1984 the report of the ITU’s Maitland Commission revealed an enormous gap between developed and developing countries in terms of access to basic telephone service.  Our 1994 World Telecommunications Development Report showed that this gap had barely narrowed, in spite of the great progress made in some parts of the world.  In our 1995 report, which will be published in the fall to coincide with TELECOM 95, we are going to look at the worldwide development of information infrastructures.  Not surprisingly, in this area the gap between the information rich and the information poor is several orders of magnitude wider than in the area of basic service.
Advanced communications networks are important to Arab States for the same reasons they are to other regions of the world: to be plugged into the global information society, to attract foreign investment and to provide innovative ways of delivering health, education and government services. Because of their geo-strategic position as a bridge between Europe, Africa and Asia, their important place in the world economy and the vital role they play in international political affairs, the Arab States have even more of a reason than other regions to be concerned about international connectivity.

If we look at statistics, we have every reason to be encouraged by the direction telecommunications development is taking in the Arab States.  In the past decade, the rate of telecommunications growth in the Arab States was the second highest in the world, just after the Asia-Pacific region.

During this time, the number of main lines grew at an average rate of 10% per year, while “teledensity” -- which measures the number of lines for each 100 inhabitants -- grew at 7% per year.  These growth rates are about twice those of Europe and North America.  In the last five years alone, just over three million new lines were installed in the Arab States.

This growth has been supported by the implementation of several very large infrastructure projects at national, regional and interregional levels such as the famous ARABSAT system, the SEMEWE’s submarine cables and the submarine cable network through the Mediterranean Sea.

Will these trends continue in the future?

When analyzing telecommunications developments, ITU researchers pay particular attention to certain key indicators, like teledensity.  Our studies have shown that there is a "telecommunications transition zone” between teledensities of 10 and 30 lines per 100 inhabitants.  This is the zone of transition from "low teledensity" status reflecting underdeveloped basic telecommunication services to "high teledensity" status, reflecting well developed basic telecommunication services.  The importance of these measures goes beyond telecommunications.  They also correlate with other indicators of economic, social and political development.  Overall, they indicate a country’s readiness to take part in the GII.

So how do the Arab States measure up?  Among the Arab States our host country, the United Arab Emirates, has already achieved this transition.  Other Gulf States will probably also very soon move through this zone in the next few years.  However, in spite of these impressive achievements by some Arab States, it is clear that the region faces significant telecommunications development challenges.

There is currently a substantial gap in communications capabilities between the Arab States and the 25 advanced industrialized countries of the OECD.  These countries, which will likely be the driving force behind the GII, have average teledensities of around 50 lines per inhabitant.  It must also be said that even among the Arab States, there is a big intra-regional gap between the relatively high level of development achieved by the oil-rich Gulf states, in comparison to the levels achieved elsewhere in the Middle East and North Africa and in particular in the 4 Least Developed Countries of the region. 

With average teledensities of 12, the Gulf States have entered the telecommunication “transition zone”. With average teledensities of 3 (1992), the other Arab States have realised the considerable distance to go.  That is why, if we look to the near future, it is clear that there is reason for optimism.  On average, the non-Gulf states are annually re-investing over 40% of their revenues.  Since 1994 Tunisia, Morocco, Lebanon and Algeria signed new contracts for a total of 3 Millions new lines.  At this rate, the intra-regional telecommunication gap will begin to close by the year 2000.  If we look at the program being made in the broadcasting (Radio and TV), information systems and mobile communications the situation is also very encouraging.

  

  

3.	The Role of the ITU in Promoting Telecommunications Development in the Arab States

One of the fundamental missions of the ITU is to help its Member states respond to the telecommunications development challenges facing them -- whether the challenge is to raise teledensity for basic services or to link with the global information infrastructure.  To enable the ITU do a better job of serving the needs of its Members, a network of regional offices has been established.  For the Arab States, the presence of a regional office has certainly allowed us to achieve better synergy and mutual collaboration with the League of Arab States and, in particular, with its transport and telecommunications departments.  In addition to this important liaison function, our regional office is directly involved in the implementation of telecommunications programmes and projects in the region within the framework of the ITU Buenos Aires Action Plan, as well as for responding to requests for ad hoc assistance from Arab administrations.

As well as establishing the Cairo Regional Office for the Arab States as its first regional office, the ITU has held two major events in this region in recent years.

In October 1992, the first Regional Development Conference for the Arab States took place in Cairo, and a number of important decisions were taken.  The Cairo Declaration adopted by the Conference sets out a broad framework of actions to be taken by the whole international community to help bridge the telecommunications development gap.  A number of far-reaching resolutions were also adopted at the Cairo conference.  The ITU Development Sector is working toward the implementation of these resolutions, in close cooperation with the states of the region.  One of the more visible products of this cooperation is the first draft of a book which will provide Arab States with sound options for telecommunications sector reform.

The regional development conference was followed in April 1994 by the highly successful Africa TELECOM.  This event was also held in Cairo, a choice which reflected the dual heritage of Egypt and the African continent.  The TELECOM exhibit and the associated forum provided the Arab Telecommunications Community with an opportunity to have a close look at the latest technological offerings from around the world, as well as to discuss matters of mutual concern.

No review of ITU activities in the region would be complete without mention of the Plenipotentiary Conference which took place in Kyoto, Japan from mid-September to mid-October 1994.

As well as making their usual strong contribution to discussions and decisions on matters concerning the Union as a whole, delegates from the Arab States were instrumental in securing passage of a number of important resolutions on matters of specific concern to the Arab States.  Of particular interest and importance to the region were two resolutions, one designed to assist the Palestinian authorities in developing telecommunications in their territories, the other to enhance the use of all official languages, including Arabic, in the work of the ITU.  In addition, Arab State delegates played a prominent part in the drafting of resolutions to accelerate work currently underway in the ITU with respect to accounting rates and alternative calling procedures on international telecommunications networks.  Work is now underway on the implementation of these resolutions.  I am particularly pleased to report that good progress has been made in providing assistance to the Palestinian authorities, along the lines decided at Kyoto aiming at the establishment of a reliable telecommunication network for coordinate and enhance common understanding and cooperation between the people concerned, particularly in this part of the world.

4.	Concluding Remarks
In conclusion, I would like to return from considering the telecommunications challenges specific to the Arab States to those facing the world as a whole.
It is clear that the development of a truly global information infrastructure will be an enormous challenge for mankind.  Of course, it is a major technical challenge; but it is much more than that.  Seen from the perspective of today’s realities, the development of the communication networks of the future cannot -- and should not -- be separated from overall human development.  For me, the development of the GII is part of the world-wide development of mankind’s diverse economic, social, cultural and political structures and capabilities.  To succeed, this development must take place in harmony with the possibilities and limits present in the natural and human environment, including the cultural differences that make the world a more interesting place in which to live.
I think that all of us at this conference share a common goal -- to participate in developing communication systems for the future.  We have a map -- the different network and service paths that can be taken to reach this goal.  We face many unknowns along whichever route we take -- the unpredictable elements of technology, markets and human behaviour.  Let me suggest that we also have a compass -- a moral compass -- that should point us toward paths that maximize values such as universal access, the right to communicate and diversity of expression.  These values are fundamental not only to communications, but to the evolution of mankind.  There will never be a truly global information infrastructure unless people everywhere can have access to it, can draw on its resources, and can use it to express themselves.  To me, these values are both the future of communications and the fundamental challenge we all face, no matter where we live.  The goal of the ITU is to help people everywhere work together to realize these values, not only globally, but in every region and every country as well.  Together, we can make this vision a reality.