Telecommunications and the Global Information Society of the 21st Century:
 A View from the ITU

AHCIET Presidents Summit
Casa de Campo, Dominican Republic
24 November 1997

In his keynote address to the AHCIET Presidents Summit, ITU Secretary-General Pekka Tarjanne will try to help participants develop a vision of how the development of telecommunications will influence life in the global information society of the 21st century.  To this end, he will

•	define what is meant when we talk about "the global information economy", or " the global information society", or "the global information infrastructure" -- essential terms in any debate about the future;

	give his personal perspective on the main impacts telecommunications has already had on society, and try to identify some of the key issues likely to be faced in the global information society of the 21st century;

	offer some ideas about how the members of the international telecommunications community can act to ensure that the benefits of telecommunications are maximized for all mankind.

INTERNATIONAL TELECOMMUNICATION UNION

Telecommunications and the Global Information Society of the 21st Century:
 A View from the ITU
										
AHCIET Presidents Summit
Casa de Campo, Dominican Republic
24 November 1997

Mr. Chairman,
Distinguished guests,
Ladies and gentlemen
It is an honour to be have invited to be with you today and to take part in this important summit.
Our goal is to develop a vision of what society will be like in the 21st century, and how it will be affected by the progress of telecommunications.  This is an extremely ambitious goal, even for so distinguished a gathering.  The impact of telecommunications on society has already been so great that it is difficult to describe its effects, let alone to forecast what will happen in the next ten or twenty years.
To try to help us envisage where we are today and where we may go in the future, I propose to structure my presentation in the following way:
•	first, I will try to define what we mean when we talk about "the global information economy", or " the global information society", or "the global information infrastructure" -- essential terms in any debate about the future;
•	second, I will give my perspective on the main impacts telecommunications has already had on society, and try to identify some of the key issues likely to be faced in the global information society of the 21st century;
•	third, I will offer some ideas about how the members of the international telecommunications community can act to ensure that the benefits of telecommunications are maximized for all mankind.
The Global Information Economy and Society
Although it is common currency today – almost a cliché -- the idea that we are living in a "global" or "borderless" world is relatively new.
The meaning we now attach so easily to the word "global" was unknown 100 years ago, when the world was still in the process of being divided up into independent sovereign nation states.  However, the dramatic events which have taken place in the twentieth century -- including global warfare, the development of global transportation and telecommunication systems, and the rise of global products, markets, and corporations -- have convinced many people that we are indeed living in a new historical era, in which the economic, social, cultural and political structures that shaped relations between people over the past two centuries will be transformed.
This historical change is often described as the passage from an "industrial" to an "information" era.
If we look a little more closely, we see that the idea that we are now living in a global information society is the product of at least three distinct ideas concerning the role of telecommunications, information and computers in society.
The first key idea is that as a result of developments in telecommunications technology, the world has entered a "global" era in which our primary frame of reference is the world as a whole rather than family, tribe, culture, religion, or nation. 
Some elements of this idea are not new.  For example, the belief that universal rights and obligations should be recognized and given practical effect dates back fifty years, to the adoption of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.  However, the idea that we are now living in a "global" phase of human development, in which telecommunications have a determining influence on economic and social structures, is a little more recent.  It is most closely associated with the name of Marshall McLuhan, who is credited with the notion that the world has become a "global village", thanks to modern telecommunications.
The second key idea is that we are living in an "information economy" in which the production, processing and distribution of information has become a very important economic activity in its own right, employing large numbers of people, directly making a considerable contribution to the wealth of nations, and indirectly determining the performance of private and public organizations.
The origins of this idea also go back to the 1960s, to the seminal work done by Fritz Machlup and Marc Porat, two American economists who found that most people in the United States were "information workers", instead of farmers or factory workers.  In the 1970s, the OECD investigated the rise of the "information economy" and found similar trends occurring in all advanced industrial countries.  Even in developing countries, the "information industries" account for an increasing share of employment and output.
The third key idea is that as a result of developments in computer technology, there is no reason why intelligent machines cannot carry out activities previously reserved for human beings, and perform them at least as well if not better than their human counterparts.
The idea that machines possessed with "artificial intelligence" would assume important roles in society can be traced to the development of the first, primitive computers.  Each succeeding generation of computer technology has confirmed the wisdom of computer pioneers such as Norbert Wiener, who foresaw the threats and opportunities that artificially intelligent machines present for what he called "The Human Use of Human Beings" 
Today, communications and information technology have developed to the point where the visions of these and other pioneers are fast becoming practical reality.  Hardware and software are being applied in offices, factories and social institutions, in an unremitting quest for reduced cost, improved quality, better service or competitive advantage.
These trends are being reinforced by increasingly strong international competition in many industry sectors, and a new global ideology that favours market solutions in areas where government intervention was formerly preferred.
Today, the idea that the world has become a "global information economy" has become commonplace among business and political elites, many of whom experience it as a daily reality not only in their work, but in their leisure time too through the influence of the increasingly global mass media.
The Telecommunication Networks of the Future
Today's global information economy and tomorrow's global information society will be based on the "global information infrastructure" -- shorthand for the communication networks of the future that will result from the convergence of telecommunications, broadcasting, and computer technology.
How will the communication networks of the future differ from those of the past?
There is widespread agreement on the technical aspects of this question.
The networks of the future will be digital.  They will be intelligent.  They will be defined and controlled by software.  They will offer high transmission capacity and flexible bandwidth.  They will have open architectures so that they can be easily accessed and interconnected.
There is also consensus on how the communication services provided by these networks will differ from traditional services.
They will convey information from every possible source -- by putting us in touch with other human beings, by tapping the world’s rapidly expanding reservoirs of electronically stored information, by sensing what is happening in natural and man-made environments.
This information will be presented to us in all its richness, since the networks of the future will connect with all our senses.
The services provided by the networks of the future will be personal, tailored to the needs of individual users.
They will allow us to interact with other information sources -- whether they are people, databanks or environmental sensors -- in ways not previously possible.
And they will be mobile, available at any time and perhaps in any place.
This, in a few words, summarizes the consensus that I see emerging around the world on the technical and service aspects of the global information infrastructure.  However, the real issues are no longer technical.  They concern the impact and implications of the networks of the future for society.
The Impact and Implications of Telecommunications for Global Society
As I said at the outset, the impact of telecommunications on global society is so vast that it cannot be captured within the scope of a single presentation.  Moreover, since we are living "between past and future", we cannot yet be sure about the ultimate consequences of technological developments.  In many areas today, there are more questions than answers.  However, let me try to outline some of the major effects which have already been felt, as well as important issues that may be anticipated.
Economic Impacts
The most dramatic impacts of telecommunications have undoubtedly been economic.  It is now accepted that the productivity and competitiveness of all economic sectors and their capacity to innovate in terms of products, services and processes, increasingly depends on communications networks.
The networks of the future will clearly affect the nature of work.  Certain types of jobs will disappear as routine communications functions are automated.  As old jobs disappear, new skills will be in demand, thereby raising the possibility of a division in the workforce between those who have highly developed communication skills, and those who are confined to menial service jobs or permanent unemployment.
It is also clear that telecommunications networks are affecting the location of work.  Company location decisions increasingly depend on access to advanced communications networks and the availability of a skilled workforce.  In the ITU, we are following this trend.  Some of our software development is now being done in India, and we are looking for other outsourcing opportunities as well.
In developed countries, 'telework' and 'telecommuting' arrangements - which permit employees to work from home or remote work sites using computer communications, instead of travelling to central office locations - offer many advantages.  From the point of view of the individual, they can accommodate different lifestyles, family situations and personal needs.  From the point of view of the organization, they can provide access to skills that might not be otherwise available.  From the point of view of society, they promise reduced energy consumption costs in terms of transportation, construction and heating or air-conditioning – depending on the climate.
Telecommunication networks are also making it possible for developing countries to participate in the world economy in ways that simply were not possible in the past, by enabling them to take advantage of their intellectual and cultural resources - the raw material of the information age.
In the industrial era, raw materials derived from physical resources were shipped from developing countries to the developed world, where they were processed into finished products.  These were then resold in the markets of the world - including those of the countries from which the raw material originally came.  In this system of production, most of the economic value of the final products was added in developed countries, by skilled workers operating capital intensive production processes.  As a result, many developing countries suffered from a "brain drain", as their best and brightest people moved to the developed world in search of advanced skills and challenging work.
In the information economy of the twenty-first century, well designed policies and clever strategies should make it possible to repatriate high value-added jobs to the countries of the developing world, through telecommunications networks.  This in turn will lead to the development of wealthier, more stable societies, and help put an end to the economic, social and cultural dislocation which unfortunately has been a by-product of the industrial era.
Social Impacts
Telecommunications is having a dramatic impact on social institutions, in its own right and as a consequence of the economic changes I have just described.
For one thing, these developments directly challenge education and training systems.  There will be an increasing need to tailor education and training to individual needs, both in classroom settings and outside them.  The networks of the future could play a key role in developing self-paced education using multi-media tools, in distance education, and in the delivery of educational and training resources to public institutions and individual homes.  Innovations of these kinds will be needed to develop the skills required to be competitive in the global information economy, and to support such concepts as creating a 'continuous learning culture' and lifelong education.
Beyond this, it is clear that telecommunications will affect the delivery of a wide range of social services.
For example, there is great interest in the application of computer and communication technology to health care, in order to deliver services more efficiently and effectively, to encourage preventive medicine, and to provide in-home alternatives to hospital care.  Personally, I am fascinated by the possibilities of using communications technology to serve the needs of the handicapped and elderly, so that they may lead more normal lives as long as possible, and participate in the affairs of society, instead of having to remain on the margins.
There are many other potential opportunities in the field of social and government services.  Could the networks of the future be used to provide better access to and to distribute government information more effectively - for example, through public information kiosks? Could social benefits be paid electronically?  And could taxes be collected electronically?
Rights and Freedoms
It is already clear that telecommunications will create significant  opportunities and challenges to economic and social structures in the global information society.  It is also becoming clear that the networks of the future will pose significant questions insofar as human rights and freedoms are concerned.
To begin with, the economic and social changes I have outlined will certainly raise questions about one of the foundations of communications policy.  In many countries since the late nineteenth century, 'universal access to basic communications services at affordable rates' has been a foundation of communications policy - broadly understood to include content as well as carriage services.
In some countries, the application of this principle has resulted in very high penetration levels for basic telephone and off-air television services - and to universal messaging through the post.  It has also led to the creation of networks of public libraries which make information universally and freely available in all but the smallest communities.  Should a similar package of content and carriage services be universally available on the networks of the future?  If so, who should pay for it?  What should it contain?  Should subsidies be provided to achieve universal service?  If so, how?
Beyond the issue of the meaning of universal access to basic services in the information age, telecommunications will raise a number of other very significant questions that will likely touch each of us personally in our daily lives.
In a number of countries, concerns have been expressed regarding the impact of telecommunications on privacy.  It is clear that some countries -- Finland, I am happy to say is among them -- have been more successful than others in providing the necessary safeguards.
Beyond this, we should examine if the principles of freedom of information and expression developed for the media of the past can be applied to the network of the future.  Can the laws, rules and regulations pertaining to such matters as pornography, libel, slander, defamation, and hate literature - as developed for the print and broadcasting media - be applied to the electronic services offered on the networks of the future?  How can the principles of copyright law be applied to multi-media services which may combine diverse sources of information from different media to create new products?
How will the networks of the future impact on cultural identity?
The broadcasting system - the principal means of distributing cultural products in many countries - already feels threatened by direct broadcasting satellites.  The high definition television and video-on-demand services offered on the networks of the future will likely pose similar threats, not to speak of the information available on the Internet.
On the other hand, the dramatically lower communications costs that should be made possible by these networks, their greater flexibility, and their multi-media capacity could create new opportunities for cultural expression, at the local, regional, national, and international level.  Will the networks of the future open up new avenues of cultural expression?  Or will they be dominated by homogenized content?
Political Impacts
Finally, it is also becoming clear that the telecommunications networks of the future will raise questions about the conduct of politics and government in the information society.
One very important question is how will they impact on the political process itself.  Are electronic referenda the logical successor to opinion polls in shaping government policy?  How will the networks of the future affect the conduct of election campaigns?  Will they enable political parties to identify and influence voter preferences even more effectively than current technologies?  How will the 'personalization' of communication networks affect the presentation of candidates and issues?  Could the networks of the future provide more democratic access to government institutions?  Or will the new opportunities for political manipulation and control override the "democratic" effects?
Perhaps the most fundamental political question to be faced concerns the role of the nation state in the "borderless world" created by telecommunications networks in the information society.  Communications networks have already had considerable impact on some countries' ability to control their monetary, fiscal and cultural policies.  Will the networks of the future undermine 'national' policies in other areas as well?  If so, what will replace them?  Will new global political institutions arise to manage the global economy?  Or will nations fragment and be replaced by smaller-scale political units based on geographic or demographic considerations?
Challenges Facing the International Community
As you will readily understand from this brief survey, telecommunications will provide many opportunities and many challenges to global society.  The development of technology has raised a lot of questions, but so far has not provided definitive answers.
The thesis that we are moving from an era in which economies were primarily based on the exploitation of natural resources to one in which they are based on the exploitation of information resources can be debated at length as can the corollary thesis that we are passing from a world of sovereign nation states into a "borderless world" in which effective political power will be vested  in other kinds of institutions.   For those entrusted by the international community with responsibility for managing international relations in a time of rapid change, two facts stand out.
On the one hand, we are clearly living in a period of historical discontinuity in which the structures of the past seem to have lost their power to determine the future.  Given many of the events we have witnessed in recent years, it is surely not unreasonable to think that political power is likely to drain away from the nation states that were created in the past couple of centuries and flow towards super- and sub-national entities.
On the other hand, it is also clear that for the time being effective political power remains the property of the nation state.  The structure of international laws and institutions which has been developed to govern the common affairs of mankind still rests on this base. With only limited exceptions, no sovereignty has been ceded to super-national political organizations.  International relations are still the way the affairs of the world are managed, whether through bilateral relations between the more than 200 independent countries and territories now found in the world, or through multilateral relations between the 180 plus members of the United Nations and the many other intergovernmental organizations that have been put in place.
The international telecommunications community is particularly sensitive to the fact that we are living "between past and future".  In part, this is because telecommunications is in the vanguard of many of the most important structural changes that are taking place in contemporary society.  In part, it is because the development of telecommunications has historically depended on the reconciliation of competing interests -- between the public and private sectors, and between nations -- in the light of criteria that explicitly or implicitly derive from "global" or universal values.
From its very beginning, the telecommunications industry has been closely associated with certain values - most notably freedom of expression, reciprocity between individuals, and universality of access.  These values are at the core of the liberal-democratic economic and political institutions to which people everywhere now aspire.
Through a variety of different mechanisms, governments and the telecommunications industry established partnerships which allowed the industry to grow and prosper at the same time as they promoted these fundamental social values.  This tradition existed both nationally and internationally.  The telecommunications industry has also been somewhat unusual in the degree to which its members have cooperated with each other to find common solutions to communications problems.
For the past 132 years, the International Telecommunication Union has been the central forum in which the international telecommunications community has sought to reach beyond purely national interests toward global values.
The ITU is the oldest intergovernmental organization.  It was founded in 1865, in the middle of the industrial era and a time when nationalism was still in its ascendant phase, out of recognition that the utility of telegraph services would be greatly increased if common standards were adopted in different countries, and that the development of telecommunication systems and services could be significantly enhanced through international cooperation.
The Union evolved as technology developed and the political structure of the world became more complex.  Since 1947, the ITU has been a specialized agency of the United Nations, responsible within the limits prescribed by its member states for the standardization, regulation and development of international telecommunications.
The central message of my remarks is that all of us involved in telecommunications must work together to ensure that we do not lose sight of the universal goals which have traditionally been associated with telecommunications -- particularly the idea that everyone should have access to at least basic telecommunication services, and should be able to use these services as they choose in the pursuit of economic, social, political and cultural development objectives, individually or in association with others, subject only to the limitations that are considered reasonable in democratic societies.
Of course, I have a personal interest in seeing a strong commitment from the telecommunications industry to these goals, since they are enshrined in the charter of the ITU and other U.N. agencies.  However, I hope that by the end of this summit, we might all agree that these goals should make sense to anyone who subscribes to the idea that we are living in a "global information society", and that these goals will consequently be seen to merit support as a matter of public policy and as an element of business strategy.  Let me explain why.
The changes that have taken place in telecommunications over the past two decades have created a situation which I have described on other occasions as one of great historical irony.  Progress in telecommunications technology has made it possible to seriously believe that, with wise policies, good will, careful planning and some ingenuity, it might be possible for the telecommunications industry to begin to realize McLuhan's vision of the world as a "global village".  However, as is often the case, reality has not quite conformed to the visions of idealists.
The remarkable progress of telecommunication technology has been accompanied by dramatic changes in the structure of the telecommunications industry, in the range of products and services it offers, and in the nature of the telecommunications marketplace.
In many countries, telecom operations have been separated from government Administrations.  Competition has been introduced in the provision of equipment and services.  Innovation has led to explosive growth in many market segments.  Technologies have converged and new players have entered the industry.  Major product and service providers have attempted to develop world-wide capabilities, through direct investment and strategic alliances.  They have done this principally to better serve the needs of their most important customers, the trans-national corporations whose businesses vitally depend on telecommunications.
These developments, which have dominated the telecommunications scene in the last five or ten years, have put a very different spin on the notion that we live in a "global information society".  Instead of being a "global village" in which everyone participates and shares, the emerging "global information society" seems to be a divided society, marked by a growing gap between the "information rich" and the "information poor" and increasingly heated competition between companies, countries and regions, primarily seeking their own advantage.
Is the picture really this bleak?
No society of any kind can exist unless there is agreement on certain principles, standards, and goals that are held in common and respected by the great majority of the members of a society.  This need for shared, universal goals must also be true of the global information society and, to a certain extent, this is certainly the case.
As we see very clearly at the ITU, the changes that have transformed the telecommunications industry from a government service to a competitive business have not lessened the need for international agreement on global technical standards, or on global rules for sharing the radio frequency spectrum.  If anything, they have made timely agreement on these very specific kinds of universal values more important than ever before.
The growth of international trade and competition in the provision of telecommunication services have led to a quest for common values in other areas as well.
As long as international telecommunications were provided by agreements between independent national monopolies, each country was in principle free to determine its domestic telecommunications policy and regulatory arrangements.  Now that telecommunications services are beginning to be offered on a trans-national basis in an increasingly liberalized, competitive environment, many countries are  discovering that there may be potential advantages -- as well as practical needs -- to harmonize national telecommunication policies and regulatory practices.
Among the forces supporting this development are the World Trade Organization agreements to liberalize trade in telecommunication services, the desire in some regions of the world to establish common markets for telecommunications services, and the decisions made by a number of countries to attract telecommunications investment capital by establishing regulatory regimes which are attractive to international investors, and therefore tend to mirror practices in countries with liberalized telecommunication systems.
This is not to say that all countries should adopt the same set of telecommunication policies and regulations.  It is simply to say that there may be a number of basic principles which can be advantageously applied by most countries, if not all.  The separation of telecommunications operations from government administration and the establishment of transparent regulatory processes – as well as the other principles contained in the WTO “reference paper” -- are examples of such principles.
In spite of the progress made in reconciling the requirements of the international community for common international standards, regulations and policies with the demands of an increasingly competitive and differentiated global marketplace, there is one area where the world community is in danger of losing sight of the need for universal standards.
Unfortunately, from the viewpoint of global development and the potential contribution of telecommunications to raising the quality of human life, our collective vision is in danger of failing in the one area where it counts the most.  I am referring to the goal of providing universal access to at least basic telecommunications services.
More than a decade ago, the ITU’s Maitland Commission proposed that the world community agree to reach this goal by the year 2000.  We are rapidly approaching this deadline.  However, although the gap between developed and developing countries has narrowed considerably when measured in terms of access to basic telecommunication services, it is becoming dangerously wider if we look at the broader issue of access to basic information services. 
The main challenge facing public and private participants in the telecommunications industry is to raise our sights towards this new goal and to devise innovative ways of achieving it.
At the national level, the goal of universal access was a cornerstone of the "old régime" of government-run and controlled telecommunications monopolies.  The challenge facing us is to make this same principle a cornerstone of the "new world information order" being brought about by today's competitive telecommunications environment.
So far, this new regime has brought many benefits to some parts of our global village, but has ignored others completely.  It is now becoming clear that many of the first visions of the global information society were overly-optimistic, perhaps a little naive, or at least incomplete.
The idealistic visions of technological determinists who foresaw a "global village" made up of "electronic cottages" and peopled by "tele-workers" will not be realized on the basis of technical possibilities alone.  More is required.
It is also clear that the more materialistic visions developed by economic determinists of a "global information economy" in which the hidden hand of the market solves all of the social problems left to us by the industrial revolution is equally unlikely to come to pass, on market principles alone.  Again, more is required.
What we need is a new vision, based on a recognition that the full benefits of the telecommunications revolution will only be achieved on the basis of respect for certain universal principles, the first and foremost being people's right to access telecommunications for their various development needs.
This vision, and the shared commitment of all members of the international telecommunication community to its achievement, is the surest foundation for building a truly global information society.

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