VISIONS OF THE NEXT COMMUNICATIONS ERA: WHAT ROLE FOR THE ITU? Dr Pekka Tarjanne, Secretary-General, ITU IIC 25th Annual Conference September 6-9th, Tampere, Finland Ladies & Gentlemen, First of all, let me congratulate the International Institute of Communications on reaching its 25th birthday. In an industry such as telecommunications which seems to change so much just in 25 days, to reach 25 years is a true mark of longevity and a tribute to the vision of the founders of the Institute. Twenty five years ago, digital communications was still a far- away dream, mobile communications was possible but restricted to the military and the wealthy few, and satellite communications was the great hope for the future to bring communications to large parts of the world where the fixed network had not yet reached. Today, digital communications is commonplace, mobile communications is widely available, though it still has a price tag attached, and satellite communications has succeeded in bringing Dallas and Dynasty to large parts of the world, but not necessarily communication with friends and neighbours. Satellite communications is now once again raising hopes that a market can be created for satellite personal communications. But the purpose of this conference is to look forward to the next communications era -- the next 25 years rather than the last. Predicting the future in a fast-changing sector such as telecommunications is a bit like looking down the wrong end of a telescope. It may be possible to forecast one small aspect with some detail, but it is rarely possible to forecast the big picture. Thus, 25 years ago we could probably have foreseen how a technology such as telex would mature in terms of its market, its technology and its price. But we would not necessarily have predicted that in 1994 there would be twenty times as many users of other text communications services such as fax and electronic mail, most of whom have never used a telex machine. During the next few days, there will be a number of sessions which will attempt to forecast the future. When I am searching through my digital record of this conference in 25 years time, I will probably hunt for keywords like information superhighway, bandwidth on demand, global markets, electronic learning or virtual reality; all of which appear in the titles of different sessions. In a sense, most of these concepts are already technologically possible, but they need price reductions and marketing know-how to turn them from concepts to markets, Over the next 25 years the jargon will no doubt change several times to make us believe that what is being proposed is genuinely new. I will no doubt feel nostalgic for the golden days of the 1990s when making a telephone call was so much simpler. But will I also feel nostalgic about the ITU and the role it played in the 1990s? Indeed, will there still be an ITU in 25 year’s time? Those two questions are clearly closely related. In this presentation, I would like to look at the broader picture of the role the Union might play in the evolution of the telecommunication sector and to consider how we need to adapt that role to ensure that the industry still needs the Union in the year 2020. What will change and what will stay the same? It is fairly easy to draw the broad outlines of what the communications industry will look like in 25 years time: It will be dominantly privately-owned and will be characterised by strong competition in most market segments. Those parts of the market where monopolies prevail will be the exception rather than the rule, and the limits on market access which are currently in force -- for reasons of history, efficiency, universal service, network economics or national sovereignty -- will be further eroded. The network will be increasingly fragmented as each individual message may be handled by a variety of different infrastructure providers and service providers. The range of choice which confronts the consumer will be much wider and more confusing, but will reward those consumers who make the effort to find the best and cheapest solution to meet their communications needs. I will be able to carry my telephone with me, perhaps as a wristwatch type of device, rather than leaving it locked away at home or at work, though I may still choose the latter option. Many of the calls I make and receive will be in the form of data, text and image rather than just voice, and indeed the device I will use is likely to look more like a computer with a screen and a keyboard, rather than a telephone with a dial. This seems to portend a rosy future for those new firms trying to break into the telecommunication sector, as well as for the traditional service providers. But on the other hand, I do not intend to spend any more money in the year 2020 than I do now on telecommunication services, and hopefully a lot less. That means that the increasing number of companies that will want a share of what I spend will need to find some other way of getting rich. They may hope to sell services to people who do not have a telephone at present. They may try to develop new services which are not on offer at the moment. Or they may just rely on the fact that I will spend more money on the services they provide as I myself become richer -- an unlikely prospect on an ITU pension! Perhaps more serious for the companies trying to sell me their services is the fact that I do not intend to spend any more time in the future than I do now on consuming telecommunication services. That means that if companies want to make any more money out of me, they will need to sell telecommunication services of such good quality and variety that I am willing to pay a higher price, perhaps by adding a video link. More likely, they will need to compete with other companies for the time that I currently spend on other services such as leisure, education, entertainment, shopping, travelling or working. On average, most users spend no more than ten minutes per day making telephone calls. It is no surprise therefore that telephone companies are competing in the race to provide services such as video-on-demand or home shopping that bring them into direct competition with firms outside the telecommunications industry. While image-based services will never replace voice-based services, in the same way that television never really replaced radio, it is nevertheless clear that it is in visual services that the growth potential in the telecommunications sector lies. A digital, visible, mobile ITU? If we accept this vision that the future of the telecommunication industry is going to be digital, visual and mobile, with a larger number of private companies all competing for a share of a more diverse but fragmented market, then what does this imply for the future of the ITU? Over the two years since the last ITU Plenipotentiary Conference in Geneva in 1992 and ahead of the next Plenipotentiary in Kyoto which begins later this month, the ITU has engaged upon an intensive survey of the requirements and the wishes of its members, both in national administrations and in the private sector. The clear message of this survey is that the membership is not so much concerned about changing what we do as improving how we do it? In other words, there is a broad consensus that the ITU should continue to remain as an inter-governmental organisation, founded on the principle of national sovereignty, and engaged in activities such as standardisation, spectrum resource allocation, development and regulation. But the membership is concerned to improve the working methods of the Union; in a sense they want the ITU to be digital, visible and mobile to echo the trends that are occurring in the telecommunication sector as a whole? What does a digital ITU mean? It means that the basic inputs and outputs from the ITU should be available in digital, or electronic, form. Since the last Plenipotentiary Conference we have made enormous strides in this direction and I am pleased to say that we are leading the way among the UN agencies in this field. The basic ITU electronic interface is the "TIES/ITUDOC" service which, even during the holiday month just finished of August, averaged some 37’000 electronic accesses per week. That is a higher number of people than would attend ITU meetings in an average year and a much higher number than normally purchase or receive ITU publications. Some 97 per cent of the ITU’s electronic resources are now available on-line and we are working on extending this backwards to cover older documents and Recommendations. At present, this service is available free of charge to anyone that has access to the Internet network. We are also making the basic working documents of the Union available in electronic form on diskette and on CD-Rom. Obviously, the ITU has less control over its inputs than over its outputs, but we are working with members to standardise electronic formats for the submission of contributions to study groups and for the electronic processing of frequency assignment notifications. In the future, perhaps even our meetings with take place in electronic form as we move towards computer conferencing and video-conferencing. Certainly we should make sure that we make full use of these tools as they become available and ensure that the ITU itself is a showcase for state-of-the-art telecommunications technology. What does a visible ITU mean? Like any organisation which is striving to sell its services, it is important that we maintain a high visibility for the activities of the Union. Telecommunications companies, regulators and users will not feel the need to use ITU services if they are not aware of what those services can offer. For this reason the draft strategic plan of the Union for the period 1995-99, which will be submitted to Kyoto Plenipotentiary, contains a specific proposal to enhance the public information capabilities of the Union. Perhaps the most visible part of the Union’s activities is the TELECOM events which take place, in Geneva and in different regions of the world, on a four- year cycle. The TELECOM ‘95 event next year is likely to attract up to 200’000 people, equivalent to a 50 per cent increase in the population of Geneva. But the Union is also working to increase its visibility in other ways; for instance, through the World Telecommunication Development Conference held earlier this year in Buenos Aires, through participation in, and co-ordination with, other international and regional bodies and fora concerned with telecommunications development and human development worldwide, and by enhancing our working partnerships with our members. What does a mobile ITU mean? It means that, in a fast-moving industry, ITU has to demonstrate its flexibility and to speed up its working methods. The work of the former CCITT, now the ITU Telecommunication Standardization Sector, was carried out in four year cycles culminating in a Plenary Assembly where Recommendations, developed or modified by Study Groups, would be approved -- traditionally unanimously. Since 1988 this time-consuming and costly method is now frequently replaced by a "fast-track" procedure in which draft standards, having been agreed upon unanimously in a Study Group meeting by Administrations, are then given final approval by correspondence if 80 per cent of the replies received are positive. The standards are then immediately published in separate editions, a departure from the former CCITT coloured Books which followed the four-year cycle. This accelerated procedure greatly speeds up the standards production cycle. In other areas of its work -- such as the processing of frequency assignments, document delivery, translation or system development -- the ITU is using performance indicators to set targets for management. A mobile ITU means a more flexible, more efficient and reform-minded organisation. But are these changes in the working methods sufficient to prepare the ITU for the next communications era? They are an important part of the process, but there may also be a need for more substantive changes. Unless the ITU continues to listen to what its members want, then it will rapidly become out of date. One of the clearest messages emerging from the recent Council meeting of the ITU in May was that some members want the ITU to provide a forum for policy discussions on matters of economic, financial and policy-related interest, to complement the traditional technological domain of the ITU. A proposal to create a Policy Forum has been included in the draft strategic plan of the Union and will be debated further in Kyoto. Another example of the changing mission of the ITU is in the area of development. Here the focus has historically been on project implementation in the field of technical co-operation. Many of the developing countries that we provided assistance to in the 1960s and 1970s are now major players in their own right in the telecommunications industry. The demand has now shifted away from project implementation to programmes issues such as human resource development, sector restructuring, market liberalisation, investment programmes and service development. The focus of development work has shifted away from the middle income countries to the least developed countries. The Development Sector of the ITU is taking on board these changes and, in the Buenos Aires Action Plan, has laid down a programme of work to be undertaken between now and the next Development Conference in 1998. Again it is the membership of the Union which has played the leading role in formulating the Action Plan, which will now be presented to the Plenipotentiary Conference. In conclusion, it is my earnest hope that the International Telecommunication Union will continue to adapt to the changing needs of the telecommunications sector as it enters the next communications era. In the same way that so many developments in the industry have been user-led, so the ITU will need to be led by its membership. In the same way that the industry has become more competitive, so the ITU must compete by offering better services, more efficiently. In the same way that the industry is transferring to private ownership, so the Union must embrace private sector participation. The Union must reflect the most progressive elements within the telecommunications industry while still preserving the best traditions of public service. It would be tempting to pause and reflect on these reforms I have outlined in the structure and working practices of the Union. But that would be a mistake. Unless the Union continues to stay one step ahead of the broader changes taking place in the structure of the industry, then it will become an institution of historical relevance only. We do not intend to let that happen.