UNION INTERNATIONALE DES TELECOMMUNICATIONS INTERNATIONAL TELECOMMUNICATION UNION UNIÓN INTERNACIONAL DE TELECOMUNICACIONES Copenhagen, 11 May 1992 TELECOMMUNICATION - INTO THE NEXT CENTURY Global aspects of telecommunications Pekka Tarjanne Secretary-General Mr. Chairman, Mr. Minister, Ladies & Gentlemen, I would like to thank the organizers for giving me the opportunity to participate in this ambitious Teknovision Conference programme which looks beyond the "magic" limit, the year 2000. To offer global views on the world of telecommunications is a particularly difficult task unless one just says that the only important trend is the change. The predictions of the 60s never foresaw the large-scale integration of fundamental telecommunication systems that we are witnessing today. Even ten years ago, the views on global telecommunication perspectives in less unpredictable areas did not correctly denote the human/machines interfaces development or the evolution of the institutional context of telecommunications. "Natural monopolies" of yesterday are disappearing like soap bubbles. Telecommunications development and telecommunications policy, telecommunications environment and telecommunications industry, telecommunications standardization and telecommunications service applications, are all key areas which will influence and model the "future". Markets and users will have a predominant role. Political leaders and decision-makers will have to be able to understand the importance of telecommunications for development in general and economic growth in particular. Telecommunications will change the life of mankind more in the future than in the past. However, it is good to note that although telecommunication technology has developed faster than ever, the real, the most important changes affecting the telecommunication world have been political or politico-economical. We can think of the disappearance of the Soviet Union or the informatics aspects of the Gulf war. But let us look at the more general long term trends. INTRODUCTION The world is becoming smaller. The rhythm of life accelerates. As the emphasis moves from ownership to knowledge, real time and easy access to information is becoming all important. Needs and opportunities have increased during the last decades, though unfortunately not at the same rate everywhere. In traditional networks, telecommunication capacities are made available for most people only at the fixed points where telephone sets are installed. In the future, the need to communicate may and will arise anywhere, anytime, whether we are moving or not. This need to communicate has become a basic human need, apart from being a basic human right; not formally embedded in the UN Declaration of Human Rights but it should and will be. The implementation cost of systems and networks continues to decrease. Technology is making it possible for everybody to access universal telecommunication networks from anywhere and to receive messages anywhere one wants. It is possible even for the LDCs - or let us put it this way - it would be possible if we were able to convince the political decision makers that they should allow this to happen for the benefit of everybody. Freedom of movement became unlimited with cordless telephone systems. The user does not even necessarily know - or need to know - what service or network he or she is actually using. The essential thing is good service at a reasonable price. The market is broad. The ceiling has not been reached yet even by the most advanced practitioners. There is no real saturation in sight for the mobiles in Scandinavia, fax in Japan, videotex in France or US Hamburger joints all over the world! By the way the McDonald's chain is an interesting network - not because of the fast food but because it can be run as an information network like the banking or airline industry. Not everybody wants to be accessible all the time; however, the possibility of contact, even when moving beyond national boundaries, definitely contributes to communication freedom. Voice Mail does extend the link across the national boundaries offering global dimensions. The caller does not need to know the location of his contact and the recipient can receive calls from any corner of the earth, and the caller and the contact need not be human beings - more often nowadays they are computers or computer systems. The worldwide network is a network of networks of people, organizations and computer systems. Tetherless communications bring remote-control and set demanding new technological requirements as regards standardization and allocation of frequencies. Mobile and fixed components of radiocommunications permitting universal telecommunications are complementary parts of the same system. We are going to learn more tomorrow about the global wireless society and its basic backbone structure, the broadband ISDN network built on a global optical fibre spider web. STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT - HARMONIZATION New technologies and telecommunication applications and the role of service providers, operators, customers and telecommunication institutions are likely to become more complex in their nature. Harmonization of these elements, from the points of view of their mutual interests in the evolutionary process, is the priority task for decision-makers and policy leaders. Growing requirements in the competitive environment may bring telecommunication opportunities and network facilities closer to many resource-limited areas around the world where the gap in overall development has not ceased to expand. Harmonization is a complex process. Integrated in many different kinds of physical and logical abstractions, it is difficult to manage in a smooth and operationally efficient manner. It will need to include a significantly more open, less restrictive culture of information system users. Harmonization is also a dynamic process where new technologies and applications, the customer needs and thus market opportunities are daily variables. Because of all these factors, the very nature of international harmonization requires cooperative efforts by many organizations including the ITU. Institutional bureaucracies should be by-passed and tasks performed quickly and efficiently for the benefit of users. What is also different today and may be different tomorrow is the way in which telecommunications service is being provided. The global norm currently allows competitive opportunities in providing telecommunication networks, services and equipment. Efforts over the past years were oriented to develop an explicit (GATT) norm for unrestricted access to and use of telecommunications, as well as for open market opportunities to provide all but a few "basic"services which would remain tradeable. It will be most interesting to listen to your Conference about other ingredients of the changing environment such as liberalization, new services, standardization, regulation deregulation and privatization. The debates all over the world, in developing as well as developed regions, seem to concentrate on the concepts of competition, entrepreneurship, cost based tariffs and user needs. Telecommunication economy and information as a strategic resource have become a departure point in describing the priorities to be followed along with development. Now that "centres of gravity" have moved out of the traditional structures, the role of the Administrations may need to be reviewed and given a proper place in a mosaic of partners. The borderline between public and private is disappearing. The role of the nation-state is changing - to say the least. Stimulating forces do not know about boundaries and privatization processes are associated with sovereignty erosion phenomena, which may be accentuated in the years to come. Telecommunication, as a priority boost for information - economy has become a very dynamic process. A major transformation will occur with the already created global market places. Strategic (regional, economic, technical, political) alliances are the keys to success already before the year 2000! Europe is in the process of designing its multicolor future and perspectives. So are other groups of nations. Information and telecommunication technologies "keep turning" the globe and will further assist in creating conditions conducive to major political and economic upheavals. The rapid development of products and accelerated implementation of new services and networks will lead to lower costs and tariffs. Personal communications are well under way and broadband service applications are on the horizon. This concept has emerged with a variety of definitions, all of which are related to mobility. Satellite radiocommunications, as a representative feature and as an integral part of the global telecommunication infrastructure, may transform the architecture of present networks. Developing countries, in accepting technological innovations, are becoming more interesting markets whenever industrial countries are showing signs of recession as they have during the last couple of years. Telecommunications have expanded, and will expand further, their political aspects in parallel with their technological dimensions. National policies are giving high priority to telecommunications, both in domestic investment as well as in cooperation with foreign partners. Internationalization of the telecommunications market will be based on harmonized standardization activities at different levels with a view to achieving global standards that satisfy everyone. SERVICES - TECHNOLOGIES - CONVERGENCE The potential environment of tomorrow is the end-to-end provisioning of a given service, widespread and borderless telecommunications. Convergent points in the future are mobile telecommunication systems which should provide access to a wide range of services supported by the wired or fixed telecommunication networks, for example, the Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) and Integrated Services Digital Network (ISDN). The current Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) has evolved to meet the need of mobility through services such as Call Forwarding and Calling Card, which allow the network users to make or receive calls from somewhere in the network different from the users own terminal location. These new services are the results of efforts towards "Intelligent Networks" which enable network computer processing, network resident databases, distributed call control, etc. A series of studies on the "Universal Personal Telecommunication (UPT)" is under way in the ITU. The UPT will enable each user to initiate or receive calls on the basis of a unique, personal, network-independent UPT number at any terminal, fixed or "mobile". A number of new technologies including Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI) technology have reduced the cost and size of radio equipment, making it possible for a person to own and carry his/her own small pocket terminal. Such a terminal operating within the internationally agreed frequency bands on a global basis or common channels plus international roaming agreements, will provide the customer with international "terminal mobility" and inter- operability. The ITU continues its studies on this ambitious and first priority subject under the name of "Future Public Land Mobile Telecommunication Systems (FPLMTS)". The study on FPLMTS has the objective of supporting UPT and maintaining UPT's common presentation to users. The services to be covered may not only be voice communications, but a variety of non-voice services to link a different type of terminal (such as portable data terminals, lap-top computers, mobile facsimiles, etc.) with networks. A range of mobile terminals is foreseen, linking to terrestrial based networks or satellite based networks, vehicular-mounted terminals or portable (pocket) terminals, etc. Some types of terminal may be designed for fixed use, which seems to be an important and urgent demand in developing countries, to improve their weak telecommunication infrastructure. Digital cellular radio technology, as it is used in GSM, will provide users with services which are compatible with those offered by the fixed network. Micro-cell technology will remarkably increase the efficiency of spectrum utilization. As an extension of personal communication, radio Local Area Networks (radio LANs), which will connect office computer terminals with servers by high speed radio links, are under study. The new technology for low earth orbit (LEO) satellite systems will add a personal communication capability with direct access from user terminals to satellites. The service area of these systems would cover the whole surface of the earth and therefore would greatly benefit users in remote areas, particularly in developing countries. Although the proposed technologies diverge, it is understood that system compatibility is absolutely necessary to achieve the required inter-operability, and that a high degree of coherence in the system design worldwide is desirable to ensure that the overall systems cost per mobile unit is significantly reduced. Therefore a certain level of standardization is inevitable and is of course one of the priority tasks for ITU. STANDARDIZATION PROCESSES Standards bodies today are part of a complex, non-hierarchical matrix of bodies where the information is constantly being transferred, compiled and adapted by hundreds of different organizations. With relatively few exceptions, manufacturers and service providers need standards within timeframes that are today measured in months rather than years. Even then, it is often necessary to adjust specifications to align with constantly advancing capabilities in basic technology implementations in processors, memory, and transmission speeds. Each additional month represents major losses in opportunities and major costs. The ITU, as a specialized agency of the United Nations, represents the interests of a broad constituency - including many countries that are unable to gain effective access to information or to participate in the meetings of standards bodies. We feel an obligation to be an advocate of any measures that reduce those barriers. Education is an essential part of development. No one can do all the work in the required timeframe with the required specification and with the necessary service to local constituents. As a result, there is a layering effect where global bodies (like ITU and ISO) make general - often abstract - standards or models with many options that are never implemented, never used. Further amplification and internetworking among standards bodies is increasingly crucial. It is important to provide a platform for global cooperation and close collaboration within the standard making process. ITU is able and ready to do so. If you look at Europe, North America and the Far East, there are entities which are active and efficient. Regional standards just reflect reality. We have been used to national standards for a long time, and now there are regional and global standards as well. In this structure, each level should support the other with a view to reaching an optimal solution. With the internationalization of the telecommunications market, it's in everybody's interest to have global standards wherever they are needed. The ITU, based on its HLC Recommendations, agreed on action inter alia for restructuring and speeding up its standardization activities. Like the operators, we should become more user-oriented. Partly because it has sometimes been in its interest, the ITU is little known in the private sector. As a result, people have seen the ITU as a bureaucratic intergovernmental organization which was building barriers to free trade. The HLC report reflects the changing telecommunications world and identifies the improvements needed in the structure and workings of the ITU. We have also tried to get across that the ITU has never been solely intergovernmental, and that private companies have always had a part to play. Today, in its standardization activity, more than 85% of the input comes directly from private companies - which participate in the work of CCITT in their own right. We have recently set up a World Telecommunication Advisory Council (WTAC) in line with the HLC Report, where the CEOs and senior management of leading telecom companies are represented and can give good advice to the ITU. We also need close collaboration with the "end users" of telecommunications. The user may be someone in a remote rural region that simply wants the lowest cost telephone service available or it may be a large multinational corporation which wants to interconnect its operations through an integrated broadband private network which it will maintain. Large business customers are typically highly knowledgeable users, often possessing their own advance facilities. They generally seek the ability to access and manage public network resources to meet their specialized needs. These customers often have the ability to adjust their operations to take advantage of lower telecommunication costs. On the other hand, there is the average individual who also wants nothing more than convenient low-cost telephony service or some easy, minimal information system access. Even here, there may be diversity between the urban customer and one in some remote region - differences that invoke significantly different network strategies. When discussing general telecommunications policy trends, such terms as liberalization, deregulation, privatization are very much used. Until recently, the ITU was not mandated to talk about restructuration. Now we have a duty to collect and disseminate information and we have already been able to help with requests for information from our members by passing on the experience of other countries. These are issues which have been treated in some depth by the Regional Development Conferences organized by the ITU in the past (Harare 1990, Prague 1991, Acapulco April 1992) and in the future (Cairo October 1992, Asia & Pacific Spring 93, World Development Conference 93-94). We have had the opportunity of looking at policy issues in particular and it has been most exciting to see the interest expressed by the Member countries - and the degree of consensus achieved. The ITU is uniquely placed to be the source and channel of expertise. We do not have the monopoly on wisdom, but we do have truly global breadth. RF SPECTRUM MANAGEMENT The World Administrative Radio Conference for Dealing with Frequency Allocations in Certain Parts of the Spectrum (WARC-92), the most recent challenging event with respect to modern telecommunications, their development, and potential applications, addressed a number of issues with direct bearing on economic, social and cultural development, for both developed and developing countries. Efficient frequency spectrum management, being technologically inspired, should continue to enable optimal accommodation for the emerging and very divergent needs of the telecommunication family. Further spectrum review and the relevant modifications to the regulations are inevitable in the future, given the rapidity of the changing telecommunication environment. Technology, market driven and, in particular, user-oriented applications, suggest basic changes to formal treaty-making processes. WARC-92 was looking at how to provide frequency allocations for terrestrial and space systems introducing highly attractive applications resulting from technological dynamism such as digital audio broadcasting, HDTV, satellite sound broadcasting, aeronautical public correspondence, and the universal mobile and mobile satellite telecommunication systems, etc. The evolution of satellite-based services to a large extent justify their transformation into multi-purpose satellite systems with the associated requirements for spectrum allocation. The strategy for making spectrum available for new services has an impact on existing operations to a much greater extent than in earlier years. The implementation plan will need to include specific provisions for minimizing the impact of reallocation on existing services in the bands selected for emerging technologies. An extended transition period may minimize the impact and allow parties to operate old services and make access to frequencies available for emerging technologies. *** Creating new space in allocating new frequency bands for emerging radiocommunication technology, will remain a challenging task in the future for the telecommunication community. Sensitive and extremely complex issues will need to be handled in the best possible way in harmony with a momentum of high tech progress. Early application of new systems capacities for the benefit of mankind will continue to be the priority objective. ***