Assessing the Economic impact of Artificial Intelligence
Executive Summary
Table of Contents
Chapter 1. The AI revolution
Chapter 2. An approach to assessing the economic impact of AI 
Chapter 3. AI has the potential to be a significant driver of economic growth 
     1.	The research examined seven possible channels for AI impact 
          1.1	Production channels 
          1.2	Externality dimensions
     2.	Of the seven channels of impact, three stand out 
          2.1	Automation of labor could add up to about 11 percent or around $9 trillion to global GDP by 2030 
          2.2	Innovation in products and services could deliver up to about 7 percent or around $6 trillion of potential GDP by 2030
          2.3	Negative externalities and transition costs could reduce the gross GDP impact by about nine percentage points, or around $7 trillion
     3.	The impact of AI builds up over time, gathering pace after five to ten years 
     4.	Micro and macro factors each contribute to the impact of AI 
          4.1	Micro factors influence AI adoption and absorption 
          4.2	Macro drivers can affect the adoption, absorption, and economic impact of AI, and potentially lead to a new AI divide
Chapter 4. Along with large economic gains, AI may bring wider gaps 
     1.	In terms of readiness for AI, countries appear to fall into four groups 
     2.	The gap between leading and lagging country groups is significant and may grow further 
     3.	More digitally savvy, dynamic sectors may experience greater impact from AI 
          3.1	Retail
          3.2	Healthcare
          3.3	High tech and telecommunications 
          3.4	Automotive and assembly
     4.	Among firms, performance gaps between front-runners and nondiffusers may widen
     5.	There may be large shifts in demand for certain skills, potentially widening gaps between workers 
     6.	AI is likely to disrupt labor markets but may have a neutral to modestly negative impact on long-term employment overall 
Chapter 5. Conclusion
Technical appendix
     I.	Micro-to-macro approach
     II.	Survey data 
     III.	Econometrics of firms’ absorption of AI and the impact on their profit growth
     IV.	Sources for country heat map 
     V.	Simulating country-level economic impact
     VI.	Stress testing the economic impact of AI