Target 18: In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communications, Indicators 47-48

 Main (fixed) telephone lines, mobile cellular subscribers, and Internet users (per 100 population)[1]

Target 18 highlights the potentially positive impact of new technologies and the need to spread access to information and communication technologies (ICTs). ICTs hold great promises for social and economic development and have been recognized as an engine for economic growth and for delivering innovative applications in government, commerce, education, and many other areas. They can further help reduce major development concerns and contribute to the achievement of social development goals, including the MDGs.[2]

Over the last 15 years, access to ICTs has been growing at high speed, always exceeding global economic growth. ICT growth has been driven by both demand-side factors, such as the increasing popularity of mobile phones and the internet, and by supply-side factors such as regulatory reforms, falling costs, and technological innovation. Access to ICTs is not evenly distributed, though, and there are major differences in quantity and quality of telecommunication services, a situation that is referred to as the digital divide. This divide has to be reduced in order for all nations to effectively participate in and benefit from the global information society.

By the end of 2005, the telecommunication industry had experienced continuous growth, as well as rapid progress in policy and technology development, resulting in an increasingly competitive and networked world.

At the end of 2005, there were 1.25 billion fixed telephone lines in operation around the world, compared to 520 million in 1990 and close to one billion by 2000. Access to fixed telephone networks almost doubled from 10 subscribers per 100 inhabitants in 1990, to 19.4 in 2005 but fixed line growth has been slowing down. The number of fixed lines has grown by some five per cent over the five-year period between the year 2000 and 2005.

Growth has been strongest in the mobile sector. From just 11 million subscribers in 1990, the number of mobile cellular subscribers grew to 2.2 billion by the end of 2005. This represents an annual average growth rate of over 40 per cent, compared to just six per cent for fixed telephone line subscribers over the same period. One factor contributing to the rapid growth in mobile cellular was the introduction of second-generation (2G) digital systems, launched in the early-1990s and the high degree of competition in the sector. The number of mobile subscribers overtook the number of fixed telephone lines in 2002 and by the end of 2005, more than one out of three people around the world had a mobile phone, up from one in 339 in 1991. In 2005 alone, the world’s mobile subscriber base increased by 22 per cent, and reached a penetration rate of 34 percent at the end of 2005. After the success of 2G, more and more operators have launched IMT-2000 (3G) mobile services, which promise extended services and opportunities, including internet access. However, today still the large majority of high speed mobile network subscribers are located in the developed world.

Mobile growth has been particularly robust in Africa, a continent that has been struggling to get connected and where almost all countries today have more mobile than fixed telephone subscribers. In 2005 alone, the African continent added almost 60 million new mobile cellular subscribers to its subscriber base, a figure equivalent to the total number of (fixed and mobile) telephone subscribers on the continent in 2002, just three years earlier. By 2005, mobile penetration had reached 15 per cent, five times the fixed rate. It is obvious that mobile has been critical for enhancing access to telecommunications in a region where fixed lines remain very limited. While on average there are only three fixed lines for 100 Africans, the rate is even lower in Sub-Sahara Africa, where it stands at 1 to one hundred. As a whole, developing countries now account for 62 per cent of all (fixed and mobile) telephone subscribers in the world, up from just 19 per cent in 1990.

The number of internet users continues to grow, reaching close to one billion worldwide at the end of 2005, compared to just under 400 million five years earlier, in 2000. Internet user penetration rates continue to vary greatly, though, with over 50 percent of the population in developed countries online, compared to only nine percent in the developing countries. In Africa, still only four percent of the population was estimated to be using the internet.

A major divide has also developed in the area of broadband, or high-speed, Internet access. High-speed internet access is significantly changing the internet experience and broadband internet access technologies (e.g. xDSL, cable modems, wireless LANs, fibre optics) are extending access and improving its quality. Many developing countries have so far missed out on the broadband boom, though, and by the end of 2005, almost three-quarters of all broadband subscribers worldwide were located in high-income countries. Advanced wireless broadband technologies, such as wireless metropolitan area networks (e.g. WiMAX), might offer great promise to enable developing countries to achieve greater internet penetration rates, at higher speeds. ITU estimates that the number of broadband internet users stood at around 181 million at the end of 2005, compared to 159 million a year before. Although wireless technologies hold great promises for internet access, particularly in regions that have been difficult to connect, it is still unclear when and to what extend mobile broadband technologies will actually help more developing countries, and particularly the poorest, to connect to the internet - and to the information society.

This overview highlights that it is true and encouraging that in the telecommunication/ICT sector significant progress has been made across almost all economies and regions worldwide (Figure 1). At the same time, major differences remain, between developed and developing countries, and on a regional basis (Table 1).

The extent of the digital divide is further illustrated in Figure 2, which looks at disparities in ICTs in terms of income levels. It is not a surprise that there is a link between income levels and development, including in the area of ICTs. This chart shows that high-income economies represent less than 16 per cent of world population, but account for almost 80 per cent of global wealth. Low-income economies account for over a third of world population, but only 3 per cent of wealth. Inequality in the distribution of ICTs is not as great as inequality in the distribution of global wealth. Disparities are smallest in the area of mobile subscribers, and greatest in the area of broadband subscribers and internet users. Although low and lower-middle income countries are home to 75 percent of the world’s population, they represent only ten percent of the world’s internet users.  

The availability of gender-disaggregated statistics for target 18 indicators is limited. Data for the number of telephone subscribers and PCs come from administrative and operational records, which do not disaggregate the data by gender. In the case of internet users, surveys have been conducted in a number of countries, providing a breakdown between males and females. These surveys show a mixed picture, indicating that while the proportion of female internet users is still lower than the proportion of male Internet users in a number of countries, the trend (where time-series data are available) is towards an increasing proportion of female users over time. In some countries, there are already more women online than men. However, it is important to note that these survey results are not representative since they limited to mainly highly developed countries.

There are methodological, quality and availability issues related to the indicators used to measure Target 18. These concerns are minimal for the number of telephone subscribers. The data for this indicator come from administrative records compiled by national regulatory authorities or telecommunication operators that tend to be timely and complete. However, there are issues related to the practice of some countries including a “virtual” number of telephone lines for high-speed data services. There are also comparability issues for mobile subscribers due to the prevalence of pre-paid subscriptions. These arise from differences in the time period chosen for considering when a pre-paid subscription is no longer active.

There are growing methodological issues in measuring the number of internet users. These include wide variations in the definition of an Internet user in terms of the user’s age and frequency of use. Another emerging issue is how to treat Internet access from mobile phones. While many developed nations now carry out Internet user surveys conducted by national statistical offices or industry associations, only very few developing countries do so. In the case of most developing nations, internet users are calculated based on a multiplier factor of the number of subscribers. When developing countries estimate the number of Internet users, they also take into consideration that many users are not subscribers and obtain access through public facilities such as libraries, Internet cafés and schools. ITU has been discussing possibilities to enhance the capacity in developing nations to collect information and communication technology indicators. One challenge will be to increase the number of developing countries that carry out household and individual ICT surveys. Since 2004, ITU, together with UNCTAD, OECD, World Bank, UNESCO Institute of Statistics, Eurostat, four UN Regional Commissions (ECA, ECLAC, ESCWA, ESCAP) has been working towards the improvement and harmonization of international ICT data, through the Partnership on Measuring ICT for Development[3]. This initiative will help develop a coherent and structured approach to advancing the development of ICT indicators globally, and in particular in developing countries.