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“In the future, we
may each own dozens of miniaturized mobile communication devices. A new
era of pervasive computing is dawning with huge implications for our
personal lifestyles and values”
 The mobile revolution is changing the way we live and
work. Mobile phones are already pervasive in all major developed economies
and in an increasing number of developing ones too. But with the advent of
the mobile Internet, wireless gadgets are set to invade new areas of
personal life and work. The mobile Internet is a powerful enabling
technology that will make possible new services and applications. But it
may also threaten traditional values of privacy, security and courtesy.
The mobile Internet is an intrusive technology.
In the 1980s and
1990s, the microchip spread from the computer into hundreds of other
devices, from computers to washing machines to cars. The average car,
these days, has as much computer power as some of the early Apollo
rockets. Most families in developed nations already own dozens of
microchips embedded in different devices. The next stage in this process
of pervasive computing is for those microchips to gain the ability to
communicate and to report on their location and status. The technology to
make this happen is already available—for instance, nanotechnology,
cellular communications, cheap processing power, location-tracking
systems—but the networks and the billing systems are not yet in place.
The mobile Internet will make that possible.
But are we ready for
a world in which an intelligent fridge sends out the grocery-shopping
list, or a mobile phone tells parents that their children are not yet home
from school? In the mobile information society, the amount of data about
our personal lives that could theoretically be collected, stored and
traded will increase dramatically. We may want to use that data ourselves,
for instance for improved health or security, but who else do we want to
have access to it?
The major uses of the
2.5G mobile Internet are likely to be messaging (see the example of China,
Figure 5, bottom chart), but the extra bandwidth of 3G will allow for
download, video streaming and multiplayer games (as in Korea, Figure 5,
top chart). Initial
experiences with 3G mobile Internet services, in Korea and Japan for
instance, indicate that it is teenagers who are driving the market. In
Korea, for instance, although teenagers have lower disposable incomes than
older age groups, they are spending around three times more per user on
mobile data services. In Japan, video messaging has proved immensely
popular among young people. What this suggests is that the younger the
user, the more likely they are to be comfortable with the intrusive nature
of mobile communications. Youngsters also have more time for playing games
and sending frivolous or flirtatious messages. The key question is whether
they will continue to use the mobile Internet when they are older and have
more spending power. If they do, then the 3G gamble will seem like money
well spent for the operators. If not, then it is time for investors to
start worrying.
F
Figure 5: How people use the mobile Internet
Republic of Korea (3G)
China (2.5G)
Source: Top: SK Telecom. Bottom: China
Mobile.
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