A new report from the ITU finds that in general, mobile operators are better placed to weather the economic storm. Mobile operators generally enjoy greater flexibility in terms of capex commitments, as capex commitments represent only 20-30% of their total cost base.  Mobile operators have invested heavily in 3G networks, but the cost of incremental upgrades (e.g. to those based on high-speed packet access or HSPA) is comparatively low.  Mobile operators can also undertake greater network-sharing to limit costs and boost gains in coverage, for only limited amounts of additional capital.  ABI Research notes that growth rates in regional mobile capex may slow, but capex will probably not decline on a global basis.

In contrast, investment in NGN may be less discretionary for fixed-line operators, however, competing with new market entrants, capacity resellers and cable TV, as well as increasingly, mobile broadband. Universal service obligations may also prevent fixed carriers from reducing their capex commitments substantially.  Several carriers such as AT&T have reported cuts of capex of between 10-15%, but industry analysts Informa find that operators' investment plans have not been 'severely altered' so far, with many operators acknowledging the importance of investment in ensuring that quality of services is maintained.

Read more in ITU's forthcoming report, "Confronting the Crisis: Its Impact on the ICT Industry", which will be published on Monday 16 February 2009.

A new report from the ITU finds that the most immediate impact of the financial crisis on the global ICT industry is on telco investment and financing.  A prolonged recession could potentially starve operators of the capital investment needed to upgrade their network infrastructure.

The report finds that investment funds are less readily available, while refinancing costs have rised sharply, with recent telco debt issuance in Europe being secured at spreads of up to 4.75% in late 2008, some 3-4% higher than the situation pre-crisis (with the exact rate depending on individual firms' debt ratings). Where bonds can be refinanced, it is clear that they are incurring higher interest costs. For example, Sprint Nextel recently renegotiated its debt from its original credit line of US$ 6 billion at LIBOR plus 0.75% for a new line of US$ 4 billion at LIBOR plus 4% (depending on the company's debt rating).  In their industry strategy paper, "A defensive sector for defensive times", Deutsche Bank estimates that European incumbents alone have some EUR 21 billion of bonds matruing soon in 2009, with a further EUR 26 billion of other financial liabilities, which may need to be refinanced over the coming year.

Read more in ITU's forthcoming report, "Confronting the Crisis: Its Impact on the ICT Industry", which will be published on Monday 16 February 2009.

Bamako's meeting on "Digital Solidarity for Education and Development" took place in Bamako, as a follow-up to the first digital solidarity conference held last November in Lyon. heads of state, government members, national representatives, international organizations and private sector companies participated in a fruitful discussion. Various intiatives were launched at the meeting, such as the  "Digital education for all" programme, the "Sankoré" website and the celebration, under the umbrella of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), of the World Digital Solidarity Day on 17 May.

ITU was represented at the meeting by its Secretary-General, Dr Hamadoun I. Touré.

• Opening statement by ITU Secretary-General
  
• The Digital Solidarity Fund
  

TelecomWeb is reporting that the number of broadband subscribers in the world surpassed the 400 million mark in November 2008. Global broadband subscribers amounted to only 57,000 ten years ago in 1998, but are projected to exceed 680 million in another five years (2013), despite the current economic situation.

Source: Point Topic.

However, the geographical distribution of broadband subscribers is very concentrated. ITU monitors prices for fixed broadband access around the world and estimates that commercial fixed broadband access was available in some 181 countries in 2007.  According to Point Topic, only forty countries account for some 98% of all global broadband subscribers presently. 

Such an intense concentration of broadband subscribers (in mainly OECD countries, China and a few other countries) has strong implications for reshaping the digital divide - broadband technology offers opportunities for using advanced applications in enhanced Internet access, but Internet users in many countries may continue to be excluded from high-speed Internet access. ITU continues to monitor the development of the digital divide and is undertaking many projects to bring high-speed broadband Internet access to rural and underserved areas.

Read more here.

The Lyon Conference for Digital Solidarity was held in Lyon on 24 November 2008 at the invitation of President Nicolas Sarkozy, on a proposal made by the President of Senegal, Abdoulaye Wade, and under the French presidency of the European Union. The Conference concluded with a final declaration recalling the importance of bridging the digital divide to help achieving the UN Millenium Development Goals. This final declaration asks the ITU Secretary-General to forward the document to the WSIS + 3 meeting taking place in Hammamet, Tunisia, on 27-28 November 2008.  

• Final Declaration for Digital Solidarity (107 KB)

The Egyptian Government launched a new ICT portal on 23 October 2008 as a collective effort between Ministry of Communication and Information Technology (MCIT) and its affiliates, the Information Technology Industry Development Agency (ITIDA) and National Telecommunication Regulatory Authority (NTRA) and Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS). The portal covers many different sectors, including telecommunication infrastructure, households, the business sector, the Governmental sector, public access points (IT clubs and Internet cafes) and the education sector.

The project builds a database within MCIT for ICT indicators which will help in measuring and analyzing the information society in Egypt, according to international standards and analysis. It aims to build capacity in the area of ICT indicators, monitor ICT usage in Egypt within different sectors and across different geographic regions. Providing decision-makers with early, accurate ICT indicators will help them in setting policies and strategies related to the ICT sector.

The portal uses the categories of ICT indicators as defined by the Partnership on Measuring ICT for Development, of which ITU is a founding member.

Read more...

BNAmericas summarizes insights from an interview with Shaun McFall, Harris Stratex Networks' Chief Marketing Officer. According to McFall, IP mobile backhaul is growing 20% worldwide annually in the most developed markets, due to the rising penetration of smartphones and growing use of data. Data transport over mobile networks grew four times in 2007 and is projected to grow another four times this year: "Growth in demand for capacity runs all the way from the core network to the base station. When they get to radio access networks, they're going to start running into difficulties because these networks were not designed for that capacity," McFall said. "The modernization of those networks is what we see as our opportunity; to migrate it to Ethernet or allow [gradual migration] so they can still keep the legacy TDM network on the air for 5-10 yrs."

"Future mobile networks some years from now will probably eventually be all Ethernet and between now and then they will be increasingly a mix of Ethernet and TDM. The latest generation of microwave products are designed to transport both," he added.

Read more...

Telecom Web is reporting that fiber-optic access specialist FibroLAN has unveiled a new 10 Gigabit Ethernet (GbE) Local Area Network (LAN) Network Termination Unit (NTU) extender/demarcation device that it claims is an industry first.
The new offering, designated the GA10, is aimed at such very large bandwidth users as Incumbent Local Exchange Carriers (ILECs) or very large enterprise users. FibroLAN, based in Yoqneam, Israel, but with U.S. headquarters in Rochelle Park, N.J., says its new product fills three clear market niches:
- As an NTU, the GA10 terminates a 10 GbE service to very large users, whilst it can handle lower rates as well.
- For wholesale operations, the GA10 can be used as a clear demarcation device between primary carriers and their partners.
- The GA10 can be used to extend transmission distances and/or to change wavelengths - for example, several GA10s can be cascaded to extend transmission well-beyond the current 80 kilometer limit for 10 GbE without reverting to more expensive technologies.

In addition, when combined with its recently introduced extended wavelength division multiplexer (WDM) line, up to ten 10 GbE services can be transmitted concurrently over a fiber pair.  Such technology offers the business segment multiple new applications, but also offers exciting new prospects for helping bridge the digital divide.

Read more...

Maravedis is reporting that, according to a recent survey by Nortel (based on a survey of 2,400 people), there is a growing trend towards hyperconnectivity: 16% of Internet users live a “hyperconnected” life, meaning they regularly use more than 7 devices and more than 9 applications; 36% are “increasingly connected,” meaning they use 4 devices and 9 applications; 20% are passive online users, and 28% are not very connected. Today’s users want networks that support voice services, while entertainment and media applications are also increasingly popular.

Read more.

Vodacom South Africa, the wireless carrier owned 50/50 by Telkom SA and the Vodafone Group, has given Alcatel-Lucent a nearly $30 million contract to design, build and deploy an upgrade of its existing 3G network. Vodacom is a Pan-African carrier providing GSM service to more than 34 million customers in South Africa, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Lesotho and Mozambique. Vodacom South Africa launched its 3G network in December 2004, its 3G HSDPA network in March 2006 and its 3G HSDPA 3.6 with HSUPA network this past February. Vodacom's South African GSM and 3G networks cover more than 98 percent of the population.

On commercial launch, Vodacom says the network modernization project “will boost the capacity and coverage of Vodacom’s network and will enable the carrier to offer its customers a wide range of advanced next-generation mobile broadband services in future.” The enhanced 3G wireless network, which will be based on Alcatel-Lucent UMTS and HSDPA/HSUPA technologies, will improve Vodacom’s network voice-quality and data-transmission speeds while further strengthening indoor coverage in urban areas.

Read more.

WiMAX has now seen the light of day in 305 deployments across 118 countries, according to the WiMAX Forum’s count in June 2008. In an example of technological leapfrogging, emerging markets, short on broadband offerings, accounted for more than 60% of subscribers on WiMAX networks globally in 2007.

Pyramid Research has just published a report analysing the deployment of commercial WiMAX networks and operators' market strategies in emerging economies. The report examines the competitive dynamics, end-user demand patterns and market potential of WiMAX, from adoption rates to spectrum licensing trends.

Read more.

UK consultancy Point Topic is reporting that China and the US are currently neck and neck in terms of their absolute numbers of broadband subscribers, but that, at current growth rates, China is set to forge ahead and overtake the US to become the world's largest broadband market. Point Topic CEO, Oliver Johnson, calls it "a major milestone for China", noting that “launching people into space is spectacular, but having the biggest broadband market down here on earth means a lot more for building a modern, hi-tech economy.”

When broadband first surged ahead in China, some observers predicted that it would overtake the USA in 2006. But then, broadband growth in China levelled off, just as it speeded up in the USA. For 18 months, the two countries ran in parallel, with similar additions in each quarter. Then, trends diverged sharply in 2008. In the USA, new broadband additions fell from 3.4 million in Q4 of 2007 to barely 1.1 million in Q2 of 2008, while in China, new broadband lines suddenly rose from 3.5 million to 5.0 million over the same period. By the end of June, China was home to 76.0 million broadband connections, only 900,000 fewer than the US. This gap was smaller than the total number that China added in July alone, at some 1.14 million according to Chinese official figures.

“It’s not so surprising that the US has been overtaken in absolute numbers – after all, China has more than three times as many homes and people”, Johnson points out. “But the US has also fallen behind the leading European and Asian countries in percentage take-up of broadband".

Read more...

As reported by BN Americas, the incoming Vice President of Sales & Customer Services Joe Manuele of Actelis, the Californian-based Ethernet over copper provider, has observed that they are seeing a big boom in broadband in Latin America driven by triple play, 3G and web 2.0 applications. Many operators are moving away from legacy-based ATM DSLAMs (network devices that receive signals from DSL lines and backhaul them to a central office) towards new IP DSLAMs.  Actelis' technology uses advanced digital techniques to provide backhaul from DSLAMs to the central office with Ethernet quality using existing legacy copper infrastructure, rather than fiber. Operators can benefit as they can meet growing demand for bandwidth from 3G services, without having to invest in fiber.

"Everyone is really spooked about the cost of oil and the cost of travel", Manuele observed. "All these new services like teleconferencing and telepresence over IP require very high speeds and symmetrical traffic, which have to be bidirectional. So we're launching services with carriers that are offering web 2.0 applications using [existing] copper infrastructure.  Actelis' "Ethernet bonding capabilities over copper" allow carriers to reach speeds of up to 100Mbps for symmetrical data transport, making bandwidth hungry applications - such as telepresence - possible over copper.  Actelis is backhauling DSL and WiMax traffic.

Such technology could boost the use of teleconferencing and telepresence over existing infrastructure, reducing the need for business travel and hence the carbon footprint of executive travel.  For more information, see here.

Business News Americas conducted an insightful interview with Aptilo Networks' CEO Torbjorn Ward. Aptilo Networks, a Swedish vendor of integrated service management and access control solutions for WiMAX networks, is witnessing considerable growth in WiMAX markets in the Caribbean and South American regions.

Speaking from the WiMAX World conference in Chicago earlier this week, Ward noted that the business case for WiMAX in developing markets is very different to that in developed markets. In developing nations, wireless infrastructure is deployed to provide voice and Internet coverage to remote areas lacking fixed-line infrastructure. While mobile penetration is often high, broadband penetration is typically very low. In developed markets, WiMAX operators are pushing the concept of advanced 4G connectivity.

On the debate about whether WiMAX or LTE will prove more dominant, Ward observed "this not a horse race in which there is going to be a winner or loser". He noted that there are a variety of technologies competing to provide fixed broadband to the home (such as DSL over copper or fiber and cable).  Ward suggested that LTE is the obvious migration path for mobile operators, while WiMAX may appeal more to greenfield operators. "Who is winning [between cable or wireline operators]?  If you are a cable operator you can only work with cable and if you're a wireline operator you can only work with DSL," Ward said. "My point is that's exactly the same thing when it comes to WiMax and GSM and LTE. If you're a GSM operator, you can offer that over mobile broadband and later LTE. If you're not a GSM license holder, you can offer WiMAX".

Ward quoted Ron Resnick, president of the WiMAX Forum, as stating that there are 1,700 WiMAX licenses in the process of being issued worldwide, in addition to the 300-400 WiMAX operators already active today.

For more information, please see here.

China is pursuing a multi-technology approach to 3G, according to Telecom Web. Telecom Web is reporting that Chinese authorities are in the process of awarding several licenses for 3G, ending years of speculation about China's 3G licensing process.

China Mobile, with 392 million of China's 583.5 million mobile subscribers, is in line to get a 3G license requiring it to use China's home-grown TD-SCDMA. China Telecom, the largest fixed-line operator with 216 million customers, bought China Unicom's CDMA network (which currently has 43 million customers) and merged with China Satellite Communications Corp. The company has been awarded a 3G license for CDMA 1x EV-DO. Meanwhile, China Unicom, which has 125.4 million GSM subscribers and is now without its CDMA network (which was merged with Netcom, China's Number Two fixed-line provider) is getting a 3G license for WCDMA. Licenses are being awarded for 300 Chinese cities.

For more information, see here.

The UK research firm Point Topic report in the results of their latest survey that mobile phone networks have finally overtaken WiFi hotspots as UK consumers' most popular way of accessing the Internet, whilst on the move. Point Topic’s recent survey of mobile broadband users shows that the UK mobile phone companies have managed to grow their market share to 47% of users accessing the Internet away from home or work, compared with 42% who prefer WiFi hotspots. One year earlier, the ratio was 40:30 in favour of WiFi.

Point Topic suggest that a year of heavy marketing of mobile broadband in the intensely competitive market is the main reason for the growth inmobile broadband's popularity, with five operators fighting for market share. Their research suggested that 26% or a quarter of those who use a mobile network to access the Internet are customers of O2, while Orange and Vodafone each take about a fifth or 20% of the market. T-Mobile and 3 have 14% and 12% respectively.

Mobile operators have a big size advantage over the WiFi service providers, who are relatively small and fragmented. But it is a lot cheaper to send data over WiFi and, unlike the mobile networks, WiFi has no problems with capacity. Point Topic predicts that "dual-mode operation, with mobile broadband users defaulting to WiFi where it’s available, will be the way of the future".

For more information, see here.

ITU Secretary-General Hamadoun Touré announced in New York that worldwide mobile cellular subscribers are likely to reach the 4 billion mark before the end of this year.

Dr Touré was speaking at the high-level event on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in New York, where he also participated in UN Private Sector Forums addressing the global food crisis and the role of technological innovation in meeting the MDGs.

The MDGs were adopted following the United Nations Millennium Declaration by UN Member states in 2000, representing an international commitment to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, achieve universal primary education, promote gender equality, reduce child mortality, improve maternal health, combat epidemics such as HIV/AIDS and malaria, ensure environmental sustainability, and develop a global partnership for development that would include making available the benefits of information and communication technologies. ICTs have been recognized as an important tool to achieve the MDGs.

Since the turn of the century, the growth of mobile cellular subscribers has been impressive, with year-on-year growth averaging 24 per cent between 2000 and 2008. While in 2000, mobile penetration stood at only 12 per cent, it surpassed the 50 per cent mark by early 2008. It is estimated to reach about 61 per cent by the end of 2008.

"The fact that 4 billion subscribers have been registered worldwide indicates that it is technically feasible to connect the world to the benefits of ICT and that it is a viable business opportunity," said Dr Touré. "Clearly, ICTs have the potential to act as catalysts to achieve the 2015 targets of the MDGs." [More...]

• ICT statistics from ITU

ITU Secretary-General Dr Hamadoun I. Touré is interviewed by Tony Poulos from TelecomTV on the theme of ITU Telecom Asia 2008: New Generation, New Values.

Dr Touré explains how Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), being the tools for all other sectors of economy, are key to achieving United Nations Millennium Development Goals by 2015. Other subjects such as climate change and cybersecurity are also discussed in the course of the interview. [Full video interview...]

• ITU TELECOM Asia 2008

Extract from Dr Touré's address: ... ITU and UPU have long worked towards the ideal of universal access. Now, at a time when the digitalization of our industries is rapidly changing the communication landscape, we are still working towards this ideal.

The goal of universal access was the reason for ITU’s Connect Africa initiative, launched at a high-level Summit in Kigali last October. While great gains have been made in the African continent in recent years, there remains much to do if we want to eliminate the digital divide. Bringing connectivity to every region in Africa requires mobilizing all possible human, technical and financial resources – both public and private. At the same time, Connect Africa has demonstrated that such mobilization of resources can create exciting business and investment opportunities.

UPU, of course, has had its own role to play in this process. As has been so often the case in the history of our two organizations, we again find ourselves not only standing side-by-side, but working actively together. Let me give you 3 examples... [Full speech]

The Connect the Caribbean event was hosted by the National Telecommunications Provider, Bahamas Telecommunications Company (BTC) and was attended by well over 680 delegates, ten Ministers of Government from around the region and other invited guests from The Bahamas. The theme of this year’s event was “CANTO"- Caribbean Unity through Connectivity and was centered on the Connect the Caribbean (CTC) Initiative of CANTO. The Connect the Caribbean Initiative is the Caribbean’s response to the “Connect the World Initiative”, consistent with the framework of Connect the World project of the ITU. The project will function as a partnership to mobilize the human, financial and technical resources required to bridge major gaps in ICT infrastructure development, enabling a harmonized policy framework and developing relevant and affordable services and applications.

The International Telecommunication Union and Andorra's telecommunications operator, Servei de Telecomunicacions d'Andorra (STA), have signed a non-exclusive partnership cooperation agreement to help boost access to telecommunication and information and communication technology (ICT) services in least developed countries and Small Island Developing States. In particular, the two parties will work together to develop and implement projects that aim to improve rural or outer island communication infrastructure; provide basic telecommunications, as well as high-speed Internet services; strengthen local capacity in information technology skills; and enhance ICT capacity, especially for emergency and disaster preparedness and management. [More...]

African regulators and policy makers met in Dakar, Senegal to address the challenges of connecting Africa to information and communication technologies (ICT). Achieving connectivity is seen as a catalyst for achieving the broader targets of the Millennium Development Goals.

The ninthForum on Telecommunication/ICT Regulation and Partnership in Africa was held 4-6 June 2008 in the context of the Connect Africa Summit, which met in Kigali, Rwanda last October.

Opening the Forum, Mr Habib Sy, Minister for Infrastructures, Land Transport, Telecommunications and ICT of Senegal emphasized the importance of establishing a regulatory framework to build a modern and successful Africa perfectly integrated in the information society.

ITU was represented by Mr Yury Grin, Deputy Director of the Telecommunication Development Bureau. He highlighted ITU’s role as a facilitator in supporting African countries to establish effective regulatory frameworks. He said the creation of an enabling environment would foster investment and stimulate growth in the ICT sector.

Over 140 delegates from 43 countries attended the Forum. [More...]