| TELECOM TRENDS |
Global trends in telecommunications
| "By the end of 2006, there was a total of nearly 4 billion mobile and fixed line
phone subscribers, plus over 1 billion Internet users worldwide." |
The latest edition of the ITU report Trends in Telecommunication Reform: The
Road to Next-Generation Networks, released in September 2007, gives an
overall picture of how more and more people around the world are being connected
to information and communication technologies (ICT). It says that by the end of
2006, there was a total of nearly 4 billion mobile and fixed-line phone
subscribers, plus over 1 billion Internet users worldwide.
Mobile surge
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"Technology is not kind.
It does not wait. It does not say please. It slams into existing systems. Often
destroying them, while creating new ones."
American economist Joseph Alois Schumpeter (1883–1950) said in 1937. |
It is impressive that 61 per cent of the 2.68 billion
subscribers to mobile telephony are in developing countries. And in the first
quarter of 2007, two of the fastest growing markets, China and India, reported
nearly 200 million more mobile subscribers between them — 87 million in China
and about 110 million in India. In fact, India has announced the goal of
attaining 250 million mobile users by the end of 2007 and 500 million by 2010.
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Alamy
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Other large countries, such as Brazil and the Russian
Federation, are also big contributors to this growth, which is expected to
continue. The number of mobile subscribers in the Islamic Republic of Iran, for
example, doubled over the past year to reach 16.7 million in March 2007, mainly
resulting from the launch of a new national operator and significant expansion
of existing networks. Ukraine continued to record the strongest mobile annual
growth rate in Eastern Europe, at over 60 per cent between 2005–2006, followed
by Kazakhstan.
In Latin America the countries enjoying the most significant
rates of growth were the smaller markets, such as Paraguay,
Uruguay and Venezuela, where the number of mobile customers grew by over 50 per
cent in 2006. In Africa, the number of mobile subscribers in Nigeria rose
between 2005–2006 by some 74 per cent to reach over 32 million at the end of
December 2006. At current rates of growth, Nigeria is expected to overtake South
Africa during 2007 to become the continent’s largest mobile market.
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"Of the world’s
2.68 billion subscribers to mobile telephony, 61 per cent are in
developing countries." |
During the ten years from 1996 to 2006, developing countries
saw a compound annual growth rate of 53 per cent in mobile subscribers, while
least developed countries (LDC) saw an amazing 90 per cent rate. Mobile
subscribers outnumber those for fixed lines in LDC by almost nine to one. But
although these advances have led to a penetration level of 54 per cent for
developing countries, it is still only 10 per cent in LDC.
While a growing number of people have access to phones and
other ICT services, many others around the world have limited access, or none at
all.
Internet and broadband
CONNECT
Faced with growing competitive pressure on all fronts,
traditional telecommunication operators are re-examining their voice-centred
business models and making substantial investments in next-generation networks (NGN).
The Trends in Telecommunication Reform report highlights the opportunities and
the challenges that arise amid the shift from circuit-switched, voice-based,
single service networks to packet-based, broadband, multi-service networks — or
NGN. The change means policy-makers and regulators must update licensing,
interconnection and consumer protection measures that were designed for
yesterday’s technology and market conditions.
Although much of the work on NGN is taking place in developed countries that
have large sums of capital to invest, in developing countries too, NGN-related
technologies are now being deployed. They allow infrastructure (such as wireless
broadband) to be provided cost-effectively, and the lower pricing of services,
such as voice over Internet protocol (VoIP). This provides opportunity for
expanding access to a multitude of services that are delivered online, whether
through mobile phone or at communal telecentres.
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Internet
penetration rates among the developing countries in 2006 were around 10 per
cent. But there is also good news. In 2006, nearly one-and-a-half times as many
new Internet users were added in developing economies and LDC as in countries
belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
As the world’s richer economies approach saturation at around 70 Internet users
per 100 people, the potential for fresh Internet growth will come mainly from
the developing world.
Developing countries not only aim to add Internet users, they
also seek to ensure higher quality Internet access and to improve broadband
penetration. Nevertheless, this is still dominated by wealthy countries. The top
25 broadband economies (in terms of subscribers) represent over 92 per cent of
the total worldwide. In 2006, some 70 per cent of broadband subscribers
worldwide were located in high-income countries, which accounted for about
16 per cent of the world’s population (see table).
Furthermore, the overall figures disguise the uneven
distribution of broadband access among developing countries. Two economies —
India and Viet Nam — accounted for more than 95 per cent of all broadband
subscribers in low-income countries in 2006, while China alone represented
94 per cent of broadband subscribers in the lower-middle income group.
The good news is that a number of developing countries are
experiencing broadband growth. In Peru, for example, the number of broadband
subscribers rose by over 80 per cent annually between 2001 and 2006, when it
reached 484 899. But in sharp contrast, there was a total of merely
46 000 broadband subscribers in 22 of the 50 least developed countries with
broadband service in 2006. Moreover, users in LDC are asked to pay very high
rates for relatively low-speed broadband access.
In Cape Verde, for example, the charge is more than USD 2000 per 100 kbit/s per
month. In at least 12 other LDC where broadband is available, users pay over USD
100 per 100 kbit/s per month. In comparison, users in Japan and the Republic of
Korea pay less than USD 0.10 per 100 kbit/s per month.
Progress is being made in connectivity across the world, but there is still a
long way to go before a majority have access to all the benefits of ICT.
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World rank |
Economy |
Total fixed
broadband
subscribers
(000s) |
Broadband
subscribers
(per 100 inhabitants) |
Price per
100 kbit/s
per month,
in USD, 2006 |
As a %
of monthly
income (GNI) |
|
1
2
3
3
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25 |
United States
China
Japan
Germany
Korea (Rep. of)
United Kingdom
France
Italy
Canada
Spain
Brazil
Netherlands
Taiwan, China
Australia
Mexico
Russian Federation
Turkey
Poland
Belgium
Sweden
India
Switzerland
Hong Kong, China
Denmark
Argentina |
58 137
50 916
25 755
14 085
14 043
12 995
12 699
8 639
7 676
6 655
5 922
5 192
4 506
3 900
3 728
2 900
2 774
2 640
2 354
2 346
2 300
2 140
1 796
1 728
1 568 |
19.3
3.8
20.1
17.0
29.3
21.7
20.9
14.9
23.6
15.3
3.1
31.7
19.8
19.1
3.4
2.0
3.7
6.9
22.6
25.9
0.2
29.5
25.2
31.7
4.0 |
0.49
1.47
0.06
0.52
0.08
0.63
0.37
0.31
1.08
4.89
1.20
0.14
0.18
3.41
6.24
28.13
9.85
1.27
1.22
0.24
3.56
1.57
0.83
3.28
2.46 |
0.01%
1.01%
0.00%
0.02%
0.01%
0.02%
0.01%
0.01%
0.04%
0.23%
0.42%
0.00%
0.02%
0.13%
1.03%
7.57%
2.51%
0.21%
0.04%
0.01%
5.93%
0.03%
0.04%
0.08%
0.66% |
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Top 25
|
257 394 |
16.6 |
76.01 |
0.80% |
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World |
279 678 |
4.3 |
2.94
|
194.56% |
Note: Broadband is ≥
256 kbit/s in one or both directions.
Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database, 2006. |
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