In the fast-growing field of mobile communications, it is often Western Europe that steals the headlines. Widespread adoption of the digital GSM standard has given that region an impressive lead in mobile communications. For example, several Nordic and southern European countries now have more mobile than conventional fixed-telephone subscribers and the crossover point will come soon in some of the larger economies too. The European Union has pushed member countries to license third generation (3G) networks quickly in order to maintain this perceived lead, at both vendor and service provider levels. Many European countries have already con ducted lucrative spectrum auctions and are planning to launch so-called 3G networks in 2002. However, there are a number of reasons to believe that Asia rather than Europe may be the real trendsetter for mobile communications:
The Asian economic crisis that happened in 1997 adversely affected a number of East Asian economies but the effect on most mobile markets was minimal. By 1999, nearly all markets had recovered and mobile growth rates were back to pre-crisis levels. Take Indonesia, one of the countries most seriously affected by the economic crisis. The impact there was multiplied due to ethnic and social turmoil. The mobile market barely grew in 1998, adding only around 150 000 subscribers for a measly growth rate of some 16 per cent. Even though Indonesia's troubles are far from over, mobile growth soared more than 100 per cent in 1999 adding around one million new subscribers. It is projected that another million subscribers will be added in the year 2000. So if Indonesia, even under such dire circumstances can triple its number of mobile subscribers, imagine the potential in other countries with far fewer problems.
That potential is being realized first in the four "Tiger" economies — Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), the Republic of Korea, Singapore and Taiwan-China — along with Japan. In the last year, this "4 + 1" group passed the threshold of having more mobile than fixed subscribers. This achievement is all the more significant in that it has not been replicated in the developed Commonwealth economies of Australia and New Zealand. This suggests that, in addition to policy changes, there may also be other factors driving market growth in these Asian economies. One reason may be that traffic congestion and long commuting times in the large metropolises of Asia favours mobile use. A second reason is the relatively young population of the Asian economies (though Japan is an exception here) and their eager adoption of new technologies.
Nevertheless, policy does matter as experience in the mobile markets of Taiwan-China and the Republic of Korea shows. Both have moved to far more competitive mobile markets, which has had a dramatic impact on growth. Taiwan-China went from a monopoly to one of the most competitive mobile markets in Asia when five new operators started operations towards the end of 1997. The impact has been stunning with mobile density rising from seven at the end of 1997 to over 50 by the end of 1999. The Republic of Korea further opened its mobile market in 1997 going from a duopoly to a five-operator market. The Republic of Korea and Taiwan-China have joined Hong Kong SAR, long the competitive market leader, as being among the most open in the region. It is significant that these three economies were the first in the group to have more mobile than fixed telephone subscribers. Singapore, where mobile competition has been more restrained, was the last. A third mobile operator was launched in April 2000, spurring growth, and putting the country among economies that had passed the more mobile than fixed telephone subscribers threshold in July (see Table 1).
But, although the news from the 4 + 1 group is exciting, some of the most interesting developments are elsewhere in the region. One of the most fascinating contrasts is between the region's two largest countries, China and India. While the Chinese market has been boiling — it became the region's largest market in the year 2000 and is pushing to topple the United States as the world's biggest — the Indian one has been tepid. In terms of market structure, it is the reverse of what would be expected. After all, China has just two mobile operators: China Mobile and China Unicom, while India has over thirty. However, the Indian market, like China's, is also a duopoly.
Unlike most other Asian markets, the Indian market is fragmented into regional licences. This prevents operators from achieving economies of scale and subsidizing rural areas from more lucrative urban operations. While licences in China are nationwide, the two operators have provincial subsidiaries. For example, China Mobile is a 25 per cent privatized subsidiary that operates mobile networks in six provinces. China Unicom also went private in June 2000, raising USD 5 billion in the largest Asian public offering ever, outside of Japan. It too is organized on a provincial basis. The advantage is that, in China, mobile operators have economies of scale from nationwide licences but are focused on regional markets through subsidiaries.
Other problems that have plagued the Indian market are high handset import taxes (in China, many of the handsets are manufactured there), high licence fees paid by operators, and relatively high tariffs. The Indian market has also been plagued by legal disputes between the operator, the regulatory agency and the incumbent, which still retains licensing powers. One effect of these disputes has been to delay the introduction of calling party pays (CPP). India's adoption of receiving party pays (RPP) has undoubtedly slowed subscriber and traffic growth. As a result, the Chinese market has pulled away from the Indian market (see Figure 2), with China adding more mobile subscribers every two weeks than India adds in a year. There are signs that India is addressing some of the problems and future growth looks promising. But a more thorough regulatory reform is required.
One of the most dynamic mobile markets has been the Philippines, which emerged as the largest of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) mobile market in 1999. It has the region's largest pre-paid market with over 80 per cent of mobile cellular subscribers using airtime call cards. Globe Telecom has been quick to seize on pre-paid and other services to make its handyphone brand the country's second largest in 1999. Globe Telecom's SMS (short message service) has been popular particularly with special features such as "mobile chat". Globe Telecom was also the first to launch WAP services. Globe Telecom is planning to merge with Islacom, part of the country's mobile market consolidation that began when the incumbent fixed-line operator, PLDT, acquired mobile operators Piltel and Smart.
Consolidation has also been ongoing in Malaysia where some have argued that there were too many mobile operators for the size of the market. Incumbent fixed-line operator Telekom Malaysia bought Emartel, a GSM operator and Mobikom (AMPS) to add to its existing analogue NMT network. Telenor has replaced SwissCom as an investor in DiGi, BT of the United Kingdom assumed a stake in Maxis and Time is looking for an investor. The government removed a cap on mobile subscription charges in the year 2000, allowing operators to reduce prices. This should add to the recovery experienced in 1999 where some three-quarters of a million new subscribers signed up for mobile.
Thailand, like Indonesia, suffered from the economic crisis with a fall in mobile subscribers in 1998. The mobile market is recovering with the number of subscribers above pre-crisis levels. One of the curiosities of the Thai market is why pre-paid, so successful elsewhere, has been so slow to take off. It seems this is partly due to lack of marketing and pricing innovation. The domestic fixed-line incumbent, the Telephone Organization of Thailand (TOT), has not been permitted to change its prices by the Cabinet (Government) for the past twenty-four years and consequently has a lack of experience in pricing both existing and new service packages.
The potential of mobile as a substitute for fixed-line communications was first identified in Cambodia, which was the first country in the world to have more mobile than fixed subscribers, way back in 1993. However, this potential has not extended to new ASEAN members such as Lao P.D.R. and Myanmar. Both Lao P.D.R. and Myanmar have only one operator and growth has been sluggish. In Viet Nam, things are progressing further. The two GSM operators managed to achieve one of the highest growth rates in the region in 1999, pushing mobile subscribers over the 300 000 mark.
Consolidation has also been ongoing in Malaysia where some have argued that there were too many mobile operators for
the size of the market
Photo: Jean-Marie Micaud (ITU 990078)
While East Asian economies are exhibiting strong mobile growth, India's mobile ailments are symptomatic of an illness affecting other South Asian countries. For example, Pakistan has been plagued by sluggish growth despite being one of the first countries in the region, along with Sri Lanka, to introduce the mobile service. It has a competitive market with three operators. However, networks are antiquated (only one is digital) and operators have complained about losing money and unfair interconnect arrangements with the incumbent fixed-line operator. Until this is remedied, the situation will most likely worsen. The incumbent plans to launch its own GSM service soon, which may help subscriber growth but will not necessarily contribute to a more level playing field for competition. High taxes on handsets and restrictions on sales by vendors other than mobile operators has led the regulator itself to conclude that the "cellular industry has not been growing as fast as it should".
In Bangladesh the mobile market was opened to three new operators in 1996. They managed to gain over 100 000 subscribers by the end of 1999, about 25 per cent of all telephone subscribers. This is no mean feat in Bangladesh where incomes are among the world's lowest and the government has been slow to promote mobile cellular as a solution to universal access. Indeed the State-owned incumbent fixed-line operator, BTTB, has not been overly responsive to interconnection so that there are around 28 000 "mobile-to-mobile only" subscribers. One analyst claims that this is not only against na tional policy, but is also a violation of human rights since subscribers cannot call emergency services. Despite these obstacles, Bangladeshi mobile operator Grameen has been pushing ahead with its vision to extend mobile access to rural areas and its village phone scheme has been a big hit. Presently, GrameenPhone has coverage in some 27 districts including all six divisional headquarters. Plans are in place to expand the coverage to 40 districts.
In Nepal, the incumbent operator launched mobile services in May 1999 but had only managed to garner some 6500 subscribers a year later. The benefits of mobile cellular to boost communication access has not yet been realized in Nepal where over 250 000 people are waiting for telephone services. A second operator is to be licensed but under the terms of the proposed licence, it will be at a disadvantage compared to the incumbent. Delays in the introduction of competition in mobile contrasts with the situation in Internet service provision, where Nepal's competitive market has put it ahead of its neighbours.
Asia-Pacific is home to the largest agglomeration of CDMA users as well as the second largest GSM region in the
world Photo: INFOCOMMS Forum, Asia-Pacific, June 2000
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The Maldives and Sri Lanka have done relatively better than other South Asian economies with mobile density above one in both. However, growth has recently slowed in Sri Lanka despite the presence of four mobile operators. One of the problems is that, like Pakistan, three of the mobile networks in Sri Lanka are analogue. When deciding to upgrade, operators with analogue networks must choose whether or not they should completely bypass second generation digital cellular and move straight into third generation networks.
Mobile Internet services are gradually being introduced across the region. Most offerings have been based on the WAP standard. In Singapore, mobile operators are eagerly promoting WAP and have been actively recruiting content providers to their WAP portals. StarHub attracted 3000 WAP subscribers just three months after launching service in April 2000. Its iPower WAP portal offers about 60 services. M1, another mobile operator, claims to be the first in the world to have launched WAP roaming (with Hong Kong SAR). SingTel, which launched its e-ideas WAP portal early in the year 2000, is also promoting mobile phones as a dial-up device for laptop computers and personal digital assistants (PDA) such as the popular Palm Pilot. It has about 20 000 subscribers to its mobile office service and announced a new service in September 2000, jacking mobile phone speed up to 38.4 kbit/s. In Hong Kong SAR, WAP users can use their phones for placing bets on horse races. SK Telecom, in the Republic of Korea, has a CDMA-based WAP service, n.TOP. Launched in December 1999, it offers banking, stock quotes and global positioning system (GPS) content. It had around 2.2 million users with some 1600 content providers by June 2000. Elsewhere in the region, Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand and Taiwan-China have launched WAP services while China, India, Indonesia and Thailand have been testing these services.
However, outside the Republic of Korea, WAP has not been considered a tremendous success. In Taiwan-China, where there were around 60 000 WAP users in August 2000, mobile Internet has been plagued with problems. The tepid acceptance of WAP contrasts markedly with Japan's mobile Internet experience.
Japan was the first country in the world to launch mobile Internet services when NTT DoCoMo started its i-mode service on 22 February 2000. In one year, there were five million subscribers and in six months, this had more than doubled. At the end of August 2000, some 11 million people were using i-mode. There are two other mobile Internet services in Japan, EZWeb and J-Sky, operated by NTT DoCoMo competitors (see Figure 3). The three services had 17.3 million subscribers between them in August 2000, with around forty per cent of all Japanese Internet surfers logging in from a mobile.
Indeed, NTT DoCoMo is now the world's second largest Internet service provider (ISP), after AOL with whom it may be planning a joint-venture. One of the attractions of i-mode is that, unlike WAP, HTML-based websites can be easily adapted. There are almost 600 sites on NTT DoCoMo's i-mode portal. In addition, there are some 18 000 i-mode compatible sites. Unlike WAP, where users are typically restricted to offerings from their provider's portal, i-mode users can access any compatible site by typing in the URL. Another i-mode success factor is that it is "always on" and is priced according to information retrieved and not usage time. By contrast in Europe, where fixed-mobile interconnection rates are so high, mobile companies are reluctant to forego this revenue stream. While much focus is on handset-based browser services such as WAP and i-mode, the real utility of the mobile phone may be as a wireless data port (see box below).
Browser or dial-up?While much talk is about using the mobile handset as the window to the Web world, a more practical use might be as a dial-up telephone for connecting computers or personal digital assistants to the Internet. First of all, the screen on a mobile handset is small and not ideally suited to intensive Web surfing. Indeed WAP-based services do not allow access to non-compatible and non-portal websites. Secondly, improved access speeds for mobile phones make them as fast as, or even faster than, fixed-line dial-up.
While conventional GSM cellular speed and even NTT DoCoMo's i-mode is limited to 9.6 kbit/s, useful only for e-mail, still photos, or the transmission of pictograms, there are a number of products that are dramatically increasing this speed. High-speed circuit switched data (HSCSD) multiplies GSM speed by three up to 38.4 kbit/s, roughly equivalent to the throughput of a dial-up fixed telephone line. General packet radio service (GPRS) offers a tenfold increase in data throughput to a theoretical 115 kbit/s. The next stepping stone towards 3G will be the implementation of EDGE, offering data services and applications at speeds up to 384 kbit/s essentially using existing infrastructure. While 3G mobile claims to offer speeds of up to 384 kbit/s in mobile mode and 2 Mbit/s in stationary mode, these speeds will not be available to all users straight away.
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Nevertheless, at these speeds — equivalent to current broadband offerings via ADSL or cable modem — the mobile handset becomes very interesting as a port to the global Internet. This is particularly relevant for developing countries where fixed lines are limited. A high-speed mobile user in Bangladesh would theoretically have more bandwidth locally on his/her mobile phone than the total international bandwidth of the country. The problem would be finding the PC or PDA to connect it to. At the end of 1999, there were almost twice as many mobile subscribers (57 million) as PCs (30 million) in developing Asia-Pacific countries. One possibility is shared access, with 2.5G and 3G mobile technologies used to connect cyber cafés to the Internet. For example, Grameen in Bangladesh would like to provide Internet access from its Village Phone Centres. The problem is convincing developing country policy-makers that mobile data technologies are relevant to them and having them adopt the appropriate licensing and regulatory framework. |
