Cellular radio is one of the technological success stories of the late 20th Century. In just fifteen years the global subscriber base for cellular has risen from zero to over 50 million. This figure will certainly double within the next five years, and is likely to be even higher, but the forecasting of growth in the cellular market has proved to be an inexact science, with actual numbers exceeding forecasts by factors of five, ten or even more. Some manufacturers predict that there will be 350-400 million users of mobile communications worldwide by the year 2005; if a market of this size was achieved, it would give mobile communications parity with the current level of fixed telephone installations worldwide.
Given the comparative youth of cellular radio compared to more mature technologies, this level of growth is truly remarkable.
The concept of cellular communications was born in the Bell Laboratories of the USA in the late 1960s, but commercial service was not feasible as the necessary enabling technology did not exist. The first operational cellular systems were opened in the Scandinavian countries of Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland in 1980. These networks used an analogue cellular system known as NMT - the Nordic Mobile Telephone standard. Less than two years later, cellular services were launched in the United States, using AMPS - Advanced Mobile Phone Service - technology. Over the next few years cellular networks were licensed in virtually every industrialized country in the world.
Today cellular radio is widespread, and over 100 member countries of the International Telecommunication Union have licensed one or more cellular operators.
The world cellular market is currently dominated by the USA, which has over 50% of the subscribers. Second is Western Europe with around 25% and then Asia Pacific with less than 20%. Over the next five years, this picture will change dramatically as the massive markets of countries such as India, China and Indonesia take off. By 2005 the largest market is expected to be Asia Pacific, which will have about 48% of the world's subscribers, with Western Europe and North America sharing second place at around 35%.
The most successful cellular markets are those in Scandinavia, which occupy the top places in the world mobile penetration league. The social and cultural factors which create the strong affinity between Nordic people and mobile communications have never been satisfactorily explained, but there is no doubt that it exists. Cellular penetration in Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark averages over 10% and is in excess of 20% in cities such as Stockholm. Market growth in Sweden is running at 40% a year, and one estimate says that more than 50 per cent of Swedes will have a mobile phone by the year 2000.
The key to the success of cellular communications is its capability to liberate the user from the inflexibility of the wire in the wall, to allow him or her to make and receive calls anywhere, anytime. The major shift in the cellular market occurred when the concept of mobility was grasped by the ordinary consumer. Cellular had traditionally been seen as a productivity tool for the business community, but the benefits of mobility opened up a mass market which is now the main driving factor behind today's explosive growth.
Another significant factor has been the introduction of competition. In some countries, the liberalization of the telecommunications sector has been an important element in stimulating market growth, cutting prices and improving choice for the consumer. Most countries have licensed two cellular operators; some, like Sweden, Australia and Hong Kong, have licensed three or more.
Liberalization and deregulation are not the answer in every case, however. In some countries, particularly in the developing world, the fragility of the market and the low level of economic activity necessitates the continuation of a single operator environment.
The most exciting recent development in cellular telephony has been the introduction of digital technology. All the original cellular networks used analogue technology which provided good speech quality but had only limited capability for services such as data.
GSM - Global System for Mobiles - was designed to resolve a European problem: the Tower of Babel that was the European analogue cellular scene. With the exception of Scandinavia, the incompatibility of the cellular networks in different countries made it impossible for a cellular user to travel between them and use the same mobile phone. CEPT, the European telecommunications operators group, initiated a development programme in 1985 to create a single digital standard that could be used throughout Europe. In a remarkable story of technological and political co-operation, operators, manufacturers, regulators and administrations all joined together to create the GSM standard - one of the most powerful communications platforms ever specified.
The first GSM networks opened in 1991, and from that beginning GSM has expanded beyond its European origins to become a strong contender as a world standard. The GSM Memorandum of Understanding Group, the club for GSM operators, now has 138 members from 77 countries, and it is likely that there will be 12 million GSM subscribers worldwide by the end of 1995. There are GSM networks in Western and Eastern Europe, Africa, the Middle East and the Asia Pacific region. Some of the new Personal Communications Services (PCS) operators in the USA have selected technology based on GSM for their networks, and interest is high in Latin America.
The GSM specification offers users a variety of advanced features and services. These include speech encryption, facsimile, data services and the Short Message Service. Most significantly, GSM provides users with international roaming - the ability to move around the world, using the same terminal to make and receive calls.
The GSM specification is not static; work continues under the aegis of the European Telecommunications Standards Institute on evolving the specification to meet future customer requirements. More advanced data transmission functions, facsimile and general packet radio feature on the list of enhancements. Some observers see GSM as the potential platform for the third generation communications systems discussed on page 5.
To date, the main requirement for cellular telephony has been for speech communications - plain old telephone service on the move. However, the capabilities of digital technology will create a new and growing market for data communications. One of Europe's leading cellular operators recently predicted that 30 per cent of the traffic on its network would be data by the year 2000. Today the business community is demanding mobile office type services - facsimile, electronic mail, LAN and database access. As technology develops, however, there will be a rising demand for the introduction of wireless multimedia services, including not only voice and data, but images and video as well.
The development of wireless multimedia will require major steps forward in technology. The bandwidth of today's wireless interface is only a few hundred bits compared to the megabits of bandwidth offered by fibre optic cable. The physical qualities of the radio medium will ensure that this limitation will continue, although new technologies will become available which will increase the bandwidth to perhaps 2 Mbps over the next ten years.
Today's cellular phones are inadequate to provide full video and image capability, presenting the mobile industry with a major challenge in developing the next generation of telephones.
The wireless communications subscriber base has almost reached 10 per cent of the current wireline installed base, and, as has already been indicated, continued growth will close the gap. Cellular radio is already impacting the fixed line market. The number of new fixed telephones being installed in regions such as Western Europe and North America is static, and in Denmark and Sweden, for example, more mobile telephone numbers are being issued than fixed.
In countries with an inadequate telecommunications network infrastructure, the cellular phone can be used as a substitute for the often unobtainable fixed link phone. Wireless technologies such as cellular are also being deployed as an alternative to cable in the access network and local loop. The development of wireless local loop (WLL) is important for the introduction of competition into telecommunications markets, but, more significantly, offers tremendous benefits for the provision of telephone service to the remote and rural communities of the developing world.
Countries in the developing world have compelling economic and social reasons to improve telecommunications provision to their rural populations, but the problem is how to achieve this goal in the most rapid and cost effective way.
The scale of the global telecommunications shortfall is massive. In most of Western Europe and North America the average number of telephones per 100 people is over 50, but in the developing world the picture is very different. In the Asia Pacific region the average is less than 5 per 100, and in some countries, notably in Africa, it falls to below 0.5. In spite of Asia Pacific having some of the world's fastest growing economies, and containing over 60 per cent of the world's population, the region has less than 17 per cent of the world's telephones.
In 1994, according to ITU figures, 15 per cent of the world's population owned 69 per cent of the world's telephones. Telephone penetration over the last decade has increased by only just over line per 100 inhabitants in the low income countries. Rapidly increasing populations have meant that in some countries telephone penetration has actually fallen despite every effort by the local administration.
The International Telecommunication Union has recognized the importance of increasing telephone penetration in the developing world, and has instigated a number of key initiatives and endorsed several others - including WorldTel, an organization dedicated to narrowing the global communications gap.
There are many factors that inhibit the extension of telephone services to the rural communities of the developing world. Two of the most significant are cost and geography. The use of traditional methods to provide telephone services - wires and cables on poles or underground - is expensive, and, given the long distances and the difficult terrain that is often involved, impractical. It has become ever more apparent that many of the problems facing governments seeking to provide rural telecommunications services can be overcome by the use of radio technology.
Radio communications systems can be rapidly deployed - sometimes in days and weeks rather than the months and years of wired systems. Radio is less sensitive to distance or terrain difficulties. Radio, particularly cellular technology, can be cost effective, and the enormous world market provides a wide selection of terminals and infrastructure equipment at competitive prices.
Radio is arguably a solution for the provision of service to the world's telecommunications 'have-nots'. It provides a rapid and cost-effective route to the achievement of the Maitland Commission's goal of access to telecommunications for everyone, everywhere.
In the field of mobile communications the pace of technological change never slackens. Even as new analogue and digital networks are being rolled out around the world, engineers and scientists are busy developing the mobile communications technology for the 21st Century - the so-called third generation systems.
Research and development on the basic enabling technologies for the third generation communications system is being carried out under the auspices of the Radiocommunication Sector of the ITU (ITU-R). Initially known as FPLMTS - the Future Public Land Mobile Telecommunications System - the third generation concept has been renamed International Mobile Telecommunications 2000 (IMT2000).
The IMT2000 system will provide a seamless, global communications service through small, lightweight terminals. The 1992 World Administrative Radio Conference (WARC) allocated spectrum around 2GHz on a global basis for IMT2000.
The important feature of IMT2000 is that it will be designed to interface with existing fixed and mobile telecommunications networks, offering a wide range of services in every type of environment.
The key features and objectives of IMT2000 are:
IMT2000 is envisaged as providing service to users in every conceivable circumstance; indoor or outdoor; from dense urban environments (including offices) through suburban to remote rural; and on land, sea and in the air.
The services that IMT2000 will offer will range from basic wide area paging, through voice telephony to data services and audio/visual communications. The user will select the services needed for his or her own personal or business lifestyle, and which can be supported by the terminal he or she wishes to use, from a menu provided by the operator or service provider.
IMT2000 will offer a single service which will replace discrete services such as cellular, cordless, mobile data and paging which are available today. Satellite, mobile and fixed networks will underpin IMT2000 providing a global communications service that will be totally transparent to the user.
IMT2000 provides terminal mobility - that is the capability to move continuously over large areas while maintaining the ability to use telecommunications services. This mobility is achieved through the use of radio.
In parallel with the development of IMT2000, the ITU is also developing the concept of 'personal mobility' or Universal Personal Telecommunications (UPT). This is the ability of a user to receive telecommunications services anywhere, anytime, through any terminal through the use of a unique personal UPT number.
UPT is currently being defined by the ITU Telecommunications Standardization Sector as an advanced system for personal telecommunications. UPT uses a personalized service profile created by the subscriber that defines the service package most appropriate to the user's needs. The profile includes a variable routing algorithm that indicates where the user is at any time and on which network he or she is available.
That network may be fixed or mobile, and theoretically could be anywhere in the world. The caller simply dials the unique UPT number and the system handles the call in accordance with the subscriber's specified requirements.
The implementation of UPT will not only present technical challenges, but will also have major implications for operators and service providers. A universal service implies the capability to roam around the world sending and receiving telephone calls, facsimiles, data messages and video, but there must be a system for generating and collecting the tariffs for these services. Who will develop and administer the payment and collection system? Questions such as who will allocate the UPT numbers and ensure compliance to global standards also need to be addressed. The reality is that a universal service can only be developed and implemented by global agreement and through a central world organization such as the ITU.
The pace of technological development is increasing. From the first balloon flight to the Wright Brothers took 120 years, but the first jet flew a mere 40 years later, with manned space flight coming only 15 years behind that. Mobile communications has come from nothing to its present position in only 15 years - given the pace of change, few would doubt that the next 15 years will be, if anything, even more exciting.
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