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 Tuesday, April 08, 2008

ABI Research is forecasting that global GSM subscriber growth to slow from a year-on-year rate of over 22% in 2006/07 to 14% in 2008/09, mainly due to the increased migration of subscribers to UMTS 3G technologies. UMTS (including HSDPA) experienced a nearly 83% year-on-year growth rate in 2006/07. ABI Research expects global GSM subscriber numbers to show a negative growth rate starting in 2013, as by then GSM will become less attractive compared to the cheaper 3G services; there will also be losses due to the proliferation of mobile WiMAX and 4G networks.

“Within the GSM subscriber population, EDGE is expected to maintain a high growth rate following increased deployments in emerging markets,” says Asia-Pacific vice president Jake Saunders. “Nonetheless, GSM (including EDGE and GPRS) is still expected to have the highest number of subscribers of all mobile technologies, with a 70% global market share in 2013 (dropping from 78% in 2007.)”

Meanwhile the W-CDMA (including HSDPA and HSPA) global market share is expected to increase from a little over 5% in 2007 to nearly 14% in 2013.

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Source: Cellular News.

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