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 Monday, June 16, 2014

The number of fixed broadband connections worldwide will see an annual growth rate of 5.7 percent during the period between the fourth quarter of 2013 and the fourth quarter of 2015, according to a report from Quantum-Web. The number of fixed broadband connections will jump by 78 million over this period to 749 million in the fourth quarter of 2015.

The report also forecast that the dominant technology will remain xDSL accounting for 55 percent of total fixed broadband connections by Q4 2015. Cable modem would come second (21%), followed by FTTx (20%) and other fixed broadband technologies (4%). The fastest growing region in terms of connections are North and Latin America with over 24.5 million new connections while the Middle East has the highest CAGR growth clocking up 16.9 percent over the same period.

The number of broadband net additions is expected to reach 78 million by the end of 2015. The number of broadband connections in China would reach 182 million, adding more than 11 million subscribers by the end of 2015. The five countries leading the net additions in fixed broadband connections – China, USA, Japan, Germany and Russia – would account for more than 42 percent of the global new connections.

In the Asia Pacific region, the largest global market, the growth is fuelled by emerging markets such as China, Indonesia and Vietnam. Indonesia with 41 percent CAGR would be the fastest growing market among the top three. In North and Latin America, USA, Brazil and Mexico with over 17 million net additions represent over 71 percent of the whole regional growth. Uruguay with 49 percent CAGR has the highest growth rate in the region.

In the Middle East, Iran is expected to see over 2 million net additions and 66 percent growth over the next two years. Iran will become the biggest market in the region overtaking its southern neighbours: Saudi Arabia and UAE and the region’s current leader Israel. In Africa with over 2.5 million net additions, Egypt would be the largest fixed broadband market standing at 49 percent CAGR followed by Algeria and South Africa.

In Europe and central Asia region, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine would maintain their positions as the top three markets. These three countries enjoying a net addition of over 8.6 million or 68 percent of the growth in the whole region over the next two years. In the EU 27 market, a net addition of 16.5 million new connections is expected over the next two years. Germany, France and the UK are the top countries in terms of net additions at nearly 46 percent of the European Union.

The number of xDSL connections expected to grow at a CAGR of around 1.8 percent between 2013 and 2015. Cable Modem the second largest fixed broadband technology after xDSL and would maintain this runner up position during the forecast period. The growth of cable modem connections is expected to rise to over 150 million by the end of 2015. North and Latin America with over 88 million connections represents 56 percent of total Cable Modem connections in 2015. FTTx the fastest growing fixed broadband technology is expected to grow at a CAGR of around 24 percent, taking the total number of fibre optic connections from 57 million to over 151 million in 2015. A significant portion of FTTx growth is primarily generated in Asia Pacific. According to our forecasts around 70 percent of fibre optic connections would be in that region. 

There are around 1,600 network operators that currently provide fixed broadband to over 670 million subscribers or 9.46 percent of the global population. China Telecom, with 88.8 million fixed broadband connections, is the largest operator in the world followed by China Unicom and Comcast. The number of China Telecom connections is forecast to rise by 5 percent CAGR to 98.6 million connections between 2013 and 2015. The fastest growing operator, among the top ten operators in the world, is Russia Rostelecom with 11 percent CAGR during the same period.

Source: TeleGeography.