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 Thursday, February 24, 2011

­Canada will have 28 million mobile subscribers in 2012 with Bell Mobility's market share decreasing over the next two years, according to new market research report by IEMR. Given the latest quarter numbers, their model forecasts that Telus Mobility will be replacing Bell Mobility (excluding Virgin Mobile) as the second largest mobile operator in Canada after Rogers Wireless in 2012.

IEMR also forecasts that market shares of Telus Mobility and Bell Mobility will be 27.3% and 27% respectively by the end of 2012. They expect the entry of new mobile operators such as Videotron and Wind Mobile to take greater market share away from Bell relative to Telus, given Bell's stronger presence in Central Canada and the new entrants' focus in that part of the country.

"The wireless penetration rate in Canada is still relatively low compared to other developed countries, and we expect that the Canadian wireless market will continue to grow. According to our forecasting model, the number of mobile subscriber connections in Canada will increase from 25.3 million in 2010 to approximately 28 million by the end of 2012," said Nizar Assanie, Vice President (Research) at IEMR. "The competitive dynamics in the Canadian mobile operator space are changing rapidly as new entrants increase their market shares. We forecast that the subscriber market share of the largest operator, Rogers Wireless, will be about 35.6% in the end of 2012."

Finally the report predicts that Rogers Wireless will be enjoying the highest level of profitability in the Canadian wireless market during the forecast period. Their  model is predicting that Rogers Wireless's EBITDA margins will remain above 50% over the next eight quarters.

Source: Cellular News